Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 201135

734 AM EST Wed Mar 20 2019

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

This is the last Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook in a series
of routine Winter/Spring Flood Potential statements intended to
provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash
flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey,
Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next
two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-Meteorological
factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water
equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions.
This outlook does not address the severity of any future river

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from
March 25th through March 29th suggests below normal temperatures and
normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. The 8 to 14
day outlook valid from March 27th through April 2nd suggests normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation across the Hydrologic
Service Area.

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.
It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river
flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding
potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures across the Hydrologic
Service Area during the last 60 days ending on March 19th were
normal to 2 inches above normal.

Snow depth and Water equivalent - There is currently no snow on the
grounds across the Hydrologic Service Area.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and
streams are running above normal. Real-Time Water data can be found
by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture - Above normal. Soil moisture and drought related data
and charts can be seen at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.drought.gov.

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system are 1 percent above normal. Reservoir levels
across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs are 15
percent above normal.

Summary - During the two week outlook period expect normal to above
normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation. For
complete weather information, visit our web site at:

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