Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FGUS73 KPAH 071803
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-211200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1143 AM CST THU MAR 07 2019

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. it covers the time
period for late February through late May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is above or much above average or normal for the
entire outlooked area.

Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...Precipitation through the winter
months has been above normal. Many areas were 150 to 300 percent of
normal precipitation and saw both a top 5 February rainfall and a
top 5 winter rainfall. Consequently, area rivers are running above
to much above normal for this time of year. Many rivers are 200 to
greater than 300 percent of their normal flow. Moderate to major
flooding is occurring on the lower Ohio River and some of it`s
tributaries. Cairo is running over 250 percent of its normal flow
for this time of year. Local reservoirs are high and are working to
recover storage lost due to recent rainfall and flooding.

Only a little snow exists in far upper portions of the Ohio Valley
with a water equivalent of 1 inches or less. Snow in the Mississippi
Valley is confined to the upper half where 10 to 30 inches of snow
exists. Liquid water equivalent in those areas ranges from 2 to 8
inches. Frost depths are running deeper than normal through most of
the upper Mississippi basin. Soil moisture is running much above
normal and conditions are nearly saturated across the region.

Given all of these factors, flood risk is running above to much
above normal for our region. Additional flooding through the spring
will be dependent on how the snow melts in the upper part of the
Mississippi basin as well as the track of spring storm systems.
Elevated river levels can be expected until at least the early part
of April.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/12/2019 - 06/10/2019

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  79   90   77   55   <5   51
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  75   90   75   51   <5   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  78   91   76   54   <5   52
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  75   52   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  76   90   <5   52   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  77   91   <5   51   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  77   91   <5   50   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  76   54   <5   51   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  79   91   76   55   <5   51
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  78   91   <5   52   <5   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  78   91   76   90   <5   53
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  79   60   77   59   <5   56
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  79   91   75   53   <5   <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff        16.0   19.0   21.0 :  34   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Current River
Doniphan            13.0   18.0   22.0 :   7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Van Buren           20.0   23.0   27.0 :   7   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St. Francis River
Fisk                20.0   22.0   26.0 :  17   22   12   18    6   11
Patterson           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  57   59   13   14   <5   <5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  67   53   13   13    5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 : >95   69   65   39   22   16

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/12/2019 - 06/10/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              17.0   17.3   19.1   24.5   30.1   31.5   32.9
Paradise            377.6  378.6  381.0  383.8  388.0  393.3  396.8
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                17.8   19.6   25.1   30.1   34.5   36.2   37.5
:Ohio River
Evansville           31.9   34.7   37.6   40.7   42.7   43.4   46.1
Golconda             35.2   35.8   38.1   40.1   44.1   47.7   52.4
Mount Vernon         30.8   33.2   36.4   39.6   41.9   43.2   47.6
Newburgh Dam         34.3   37.7   40.8   43.2   44.5   45.5   48.5
Owensboro            30.9   33.7   36.0   39.4   41.6   43.0   46.6
Shawneetown          30.6   31.8   36.5   40.6   45.4   48.3   54.6
J.T. Myers Dam       34.2   35.4   39.1   42.2   45.5   48.5   52.9
:Patoka River
Princeton            13.6   15.0   17.6   20.2   21.7   25.5   26.1
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            9.1    9.7   11.0   13.4   19.8   22.7   25.7
:Wabash River
New Harmony          12.2   13.9   16.6   18.2   20.2   21.7   22.5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff          9.3    9.7   10.1   10.5   11.4   17.9   19.1
:Current River
Doniphan              2.3    2.6    3.9    5.4    9.3   12.7   16.6
Van Buren             4.7    5.2    6.2    7.4   10.5   14.3   18.5
:St. Francis River
Fisk                 13.9   13.9   13.9   13.9   16.9   22.7   27.1
Patterson             6.1    6.0    5.7    5.5    5.3    5.1    4.8
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            19.6   19.6   19.8   21.4   23.8   27.9   34.1
Murphysboro          23.4   24.3   26.6   30.4   35.2   41.5   44.3

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/12/2019 - 06/10/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              12.8   12.6   12.0   11.6   11.3   11.0   10.4
Paradise            369.1  368.6  367.4  366.9  366.3  365.7  364.8
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 6.5    4.9    4.3    3.6    3.2    3.0    2.8
:Ohio River
Evansville           17.6   16.7   15.8   15.2   14.7   14.5   14.3
Golconda             29.9   29.8   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6
Mount Vernon         24.1   24.0   23.8   23.7   23.6   23.5   23.5
Newburgh Dam         17.9   17.4   16.5   15.7   14.9   14.6   14.4
Owensboro            19.1   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
Shawneetown          19.6   18.2   17.4   16.6   16.0   15.8   15.6
J.T. Myers Dam       20.7   19.0   17.6   16.0   15.3   14.7   14.4
:Patoka River
Princeton             9.1    8.5    7.7    6.2    4.6    3.8    3.5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2
:Wabash River
New Harmony           5.9    4.9    4.2    3.3    3.0    2.4    2.2
:St. Francis River
Patterson             6.1    6.0    5.7    5.5    5.3    5.1    4.8
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            11.4   10.9    9.3    8.1    6.7    6.4    6.1
Murphysboro          14.1   14.1   13.4   11.4    7.7    5.0    4.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

...Weather Outlooks...

Another storm system is working its way toward our region. Showers
and storms may produce isolated heavy rain late Friday night through
Saturday. Rainfall totals should be near one inch. Another storm
system next Tuesday and Wednesday will bring a better chance of
heavier rain with totals between one and two inches.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 14 through 20 calls for below
normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation. During
this time, normal average temperatures are in the middle and upper
40s and rainfall during this period is around one inch.

The outlook for March calls for normal to above normal precipitation.
Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The 90
day outlook for March through May calls for generally normal
precipitation with an area of above normal precipitation in
southernmost parts of Missouri and Kentucky.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.

Unless conditions warrant, this will be the final spring and water
resources outlook for this year.

$$






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