Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FGUS72 KRAH 050224
ESFRAH

...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING OVER CENTRAL NC FOR THE LATE
WINTER/EARLY SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL...

Precipitation Summary

Rainfall over the past month has been above normal for much of
central NC, including the Triangle and Triad regions. However, some
locations such as the Fayetteville area were slightly below normal
for the month of February. Rain was reported on at least 12 days
while rainfall amounts of half an inch or more were reported on 5 or
fewer days. The majority of the month`s rainfall occurred between
February 16th and the 23rd.

See www.water.weather.gov for detailed rainfall analysis.

Precipitation and departure from normal:

          Precipitation (inches) and departure from normal
            for the water year beginning 1 October 2017

    Month                RDU            GSO        Fayetteville
------------------------------------------------------------------

  October             4.58/ 1.33     7.22/ 4.09     2.22/-0.99
  November            7.10/ 3.98     6.46/ 3.35     5.31/ 2.54
  December            6.23/ 3.16     6.99/ 4.01     6.00/ 3.35
  January             3.43/-0.07     4.01/ 0.95     2.77/-0.53
  February            4.26/ 1.03     5.89/ 2.93     2.05/-0.71

Total precip         25.60/ 9.43    30.57/15.33    18.15/ 3.66
Percent normal           137            150            120
---------------------------------------------------------------

                  Begin     Actual   Normal  Departure  Percent
                  date       Pcpn     Pcpn   from norm  of norm

Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/23/2019   2.01    0.86      1.15      234%
 LAST  14 DAYS   02/16/2019   4.59    1.70      2.89      270%
 LAST  30 DAYS   01/31/2019   4.91    3.48      1.43      141%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/02/2018  14.25    9.83      4.42      145%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/03/2018  34.03   20.34     13.69      167%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/02/2018  62.42   43.34     19.08      144%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/23/2019   2.49    0.80      1.69      311%
 LAST  14 DAYS   02/16/2019   6.00    1.58      4.42      380%
 LAST  30 DAYS   01/31/2019   6.68    3.18      3.50      210%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/02/2018  17.49    9.02      8.47      194%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/03/2018  40.03   19.25     20.78      208%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/02/2018  68.14   42.20     25.94      161%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/23/2019   0.67    0.68     -0.01       99%
 LAST  14 DAYS   02/16/2019   1.95    1.48      0.47      132%
 LAST  30 DAYS   01/31/2019   2.53    2.99     -0.46       85%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/02/2018  10.13    8.70      1.43      116%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/03/2018  34.37   18.90     15.47      182%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/02/2018  58.48   44.46     14.02      132%


Streamflows and lake levels

Streamflows on unregulated streams and rivers across central NC are
are normal to much-above-normal, with all gages reporting flows
above the 25th percentile.

See https://waterwatch.usgs.gov for additional details.

The major water supply and flood control reservoirs in central NC
are Falls Lake and B. Everett Jordan Lake, both operated by the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers. Due to rainfall over the past two weeks
both Falls and Jordan are 10-15 feet above their target elevations.
Both lakes are expected to release water to get levels back to near
guide curve over the course of the next couple weeks. However, any
significant rainfall events would greatly slow the decreases in lake
levels.

See www.epec.saw.usace.army.mil for additional details.

Short term forecast

Despite below normal temperatures expected for the next few days,
temperatures are expected to be above normal based on the outlooks
from the Climate Prediction Center. Precipitation is expected to be
above normal for the next month as well, with two frontal systems
expected to impact the region in the next two weeks. Either or both
of these systems have a chance of producing significant
precipitation. Due to the saturated ground and recent/ongoing main-
stem river flooding, any rainfall event of 1-2 inches would lead to
additional river flooding across the area.

Longer term precipitation outlook

With respect to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, we
are currently in a weak El Nino. which is expected to continue
through the Spring. For NC, this is the `cool` ENSO phase, which
typically produces increased chances of cooler-than-normal
temperatures and higher-than-normal precipitation. Given the
persistent wetness and favorable outlook for precipitation, the
longer range chance of river flooding is considered above normal.

Additional details and discussion may be found at the Climate
Prediction Center website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

In summary, current hydrologic conditions are significantly wetter
than normal across central NC.

While there no hints of any system in the next week which would be
capable of producing significant rain, there are one or two in the
coming weeks which support an above normal chance for flooding
through the end of March. Similarly, climatological signals pointing
towards the potential for wet periods in the longer range outlook,
support the chance of flooding through the late winter and early
spring as also normal to above normal.

The next scheduled Winter/Spring flood outlook will be issued
on April 5th.

For additional hydrologic or weather information, visit our website
at www.weather.gov/raleigh.

KCP


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