Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 061954
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-081200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019


...Long Range Flood Outlook for Larger Rivers and Creeks in the
National Weather Service Springfield Hydrologic Service Area through
the end of August...

Based on current streamflow levels being above to much above normal,
soil moisture being above normal and expected 90-day precipitation
accumulations being above normal, there will be an above normal
chance for river flooding along the Osage and Spring Rivers and
their tributaries through the end of August. Other larger rivers
will have a near to slightly above normal chance for flooding
through much of the summer.

River flooding will be driven mainly by individual rainfall events.
However, over the Osage River basin upstream from Truman Lake,
flooding will be driven by backwater effects through the next four
to six weeks. Details on current and historical exceedance
probabilities for selected locations are given in the tables below.

Graphical representation of probability data can be found by going
to the NWS Springfield Website and clicking on the Rivers and Lakes
link, then opening the Long Range Flood Risk tab.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  70   65   60   45    5    5
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 : >98   77   31   21   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  21   16    8    8    7    7
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 : >98   54   23   21    6    6
:Osage River
Schell City         30.0   35.0   45.0 : >98   76  >98   10   <5   <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills     16.0   19.0   28.0 :  50   35   33   28   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  16   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  18   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  11   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 : >95   18  >95   <5   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 : >95   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 : >95   19  >95    6   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              11.5   16.0   18.0 : >95    9  >95   <5    5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  21   17   11    9   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton               16.9   16.9   20.6   25.8   28.0   29.1   30.4
Horton               42.3   42.3   42.3   43.9   45.4   45.9   48.3
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           23.1   23.1   29.1   34.0   37.1   40.8   44.4
Nevada               21.1   21.1   21.1   21.8   25.5   29.1   32.7
:Osage River
Schell City          36.5   36.5   36.5   36.5   36.5   36.5   39.8
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills      13.7   13.7   13.9   16.0   20.2   26.2   27.0
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            4.9    4.9    4.9    6.3    8.4   16.0   18.3
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           2.8    2.8    2.9    3.4    5.2    7.7    9.1
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     3.8    3.8    3.8    4.5    6.1   10.6   13.0
:Gasconade River
Jerome                6.0    6.0    6.0    6.5   10.7   16.0   21.2
:Spring River
Carthage             15.6   15.6   15.6   15.6   15.6   15.6   15.9
Waco                 25.9   25.9   25.9   25.9   26.0   26.6   27.3
Baxter Springs       24.9   24.9   24.9   24.9   25.0   26.1   27.4
:Shoal Creek
Joplin               16.9   16.9   16.9   16.9   16.9   17.2   18.0
:Elk River
Tiff City             9.8    9.8    9.8   10.0   13.2   20.6   23.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 05/25/2019  - 08/23/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.9    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.4    1.5
Horton               27.5   27.3   27.0   26.6   26.0   25.4   24.1
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.7    7.7    7.3    7.1    6.9    6.8    6.7
Nevada                2.7    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1
:Osage River
Schell City          18.6   18.0   17.5   17.2   16.8   16.7   16.6
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       6.6    6.4    6.2    6.0    5.9    5.9    5.9
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            2.2    2.1    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     2.0    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5
:Gasconade River
Jerome                2.3    2.0    1.8    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf ...under the rivers and lakes tab
and experimental long range risk tab for more weather information.

The next outlook will be issued around the first of July.

$$

Terry



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