Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
430 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2019

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook #2....

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the larger river systems in the
National Weather Service Springfield Missouri Hydrologic Service
Area (HSA). This includes the Spring, Osage, Gasconade, James, Jacks
Fork and North Fork White Basins.

Current conditions:

It has been a wetter than normal winter for the region with
precipitation during the last 90 days running above average. South
central Missouri has received 125% to 150% of their normal
precipitation during this period, while the rest of the area
received between 100% to 125%. Soil moisture is in the 50th to 75th
percentile of normal, and stream flow is slightly above normal over
south central Missouri, and near normal over the rest of the
area.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center
indicates increased chances (60% to 70%) for below normal
temperatures, and slightly higher than normal chances for below
normal precipitation (40%-50%).

The 30-Day Outlook indicates increased chances for below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation through the month of
March.

The 90-Day Outlook indicates equal chances for above, below and
normal temperatures and slightly higher than normal chances for
above normal precipitation through the end of May.

River Flood Potential - Extreme Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest
Missouri - Spring and Elk Rivers and Shoal Creek:

Based on current conditions and seasonal outlooks, there is a near
normal chance for river flooding along the Spring and Elk Rivers and
Shoal Creek. River flooding is typically driven by thunderstorm
activity.

The table below shows probabilities for minor, moderate and major
flooding at river forecast points across southwestern Missouri and
southeast Kansas. These are not extreme conditions for this region
and reflect a near normal potential for flooding.

Location          % Probability  % Probability       % Probability
              Minor Flooding   Moderate Flooding  Major Flooding

Spring River

Carthage, MO          58                 20            Not Expected
Waco, MO              49            Not Expected       Not Expected
Baxter Springs, KS    42                 12            3

Elk River
 Tiff City, MO        35                 17            Not Expected

Shoal Creek
 Joplin, MO           12                  6            Not Expected


River Flood Outlook for Southeast Kansas, West Central Missouri and
Central Missouri - Osage, Little Osage, Marmaton, Sac, Big Piney and
Gasconade Rivers and Roubidoux Creek.

There is an above normal chance for river flooding this Spring based
on current conditions and seasonal outlooks. River flooding is
typically driven by thunderstorm activity. However there is some
snow coverage in the Osage Basin that could impact river levels
early this Spring.

There is a greater than 50% probability of moderate level flooding
on the Little Osage and Sac Rivers, and a greater than 50% chance
for minor flooding on the Big Piney, Gasconade, Marmaton, and Osage
Rivers, as well as Roubidoux Creek.

The table below shows probabilities for minor, moderate and major
flooding at river forecast points across southeast Kansas, west
central Missouri and central Missouri.

Location          % Probability  % Probability       % Probability
              Minor Flooding   Moderate Flooding  Major Flooding

Little Osage River
  Fulton               80                 64               5
  Horton              >98                 38          Not Expected

Marmaton River
 Fort Scott            33                  8                6
 Nevada                74                 41                8

Osage River
 Schell City          >98                 14          Not Expected

Sac River
 Caplinger Mills      63                  51                6

Gasconade River
 Hazelgreen           25                  15                5
 Jerome               54                  21                5

Roubidoux Creek
 Waynesville          48                  5           Not Expected

Big Piney
 Fort Leonard Wood    80                  32          Not Expected


Larger lakes along and near the Osage River have between 85% and
100% of flood pool storage available to collect water from Spring
rainfall. Percentages for each lake are given below.

    Stockton     96%          Pomme de Terre      94%
    Truman       97%       Lake of the Ozarks    100%

River Flood Potential for Southwest and South Central Missouri -
James, Jacks Fork, and North Fork White Rivers:

Based on saturated soil moisture and much above normal stream
flow conditions combined with seasonal outlooks, there is a near to
above average flood potential along the James, Jacks Fork and North
Fork White Rivers. River flooding is expected to be influenced
mainly by thunderstorm activity.

Location          % Probability  % Probability       % Probability
                Minor Flooding   Moderate Flooding  Major Flooding

Jacks Fork
 Alley Spring         27                 6            Not Expected
 Eminence              7           Not Expected       Not Expected

James
 Galena               45                 19                9

Most lakes along and near the White River near the Missouri -
Arkansas border will have at least 75% of their flood pool storage
available for collecting Spring rainfall. Percentages of available
flood control storage for the White River Reservoirs are given below.

    Beaver Res. AR       80%      Table Rock Res. MO 100%
    Bull Shoals Res. AR  81%      Norfork Res. AR     79%

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/09/2019  - 06/07/2019

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  80   74   64   55    5    6
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 : >98   88   38   36   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  33   31    8   11    6    7
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  74   76   41   39    8    9
:Osage River
Schell City         30.0   35.0   45.0 : >98   77   14   16   <5   <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills     16.0   19.0   28.0 :  63   61   51   48    6    6
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  25   28   15   16    5    5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  48   51    5    5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  80   72   32   32   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  54   49   21   22    5    5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  32   30   10   <5   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  34   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  25   27    9    9   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              11.5   16.0   18.0 :  10   14    5    5   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  23   23    6    7   <5   <5
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring         9.0   12.0   16.0 :  27    8    6   <5   <5   <5
:Jacks Fork River
Eminence            12.0   15.0   20.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Galena              15.0   25.0   31.0 :  45   44   19   17    9   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/09/2019  - 06/07/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton               21.5   21.5   23.5   26.1   28.4   29.6   30.5
Horton               42.3   42.3   43.3   44.3   45.4   47.3   48.2
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           28.1   28.1   32.4   35.5   38.8   41.5   43.5
Nevada               19.1   19.1   19.6   24.6   28.8   30.7   33.9
:Osage River
Schell City          30.8   30.8   31.2   32.3   33.9   35.1   37.2
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills      12.4   12.4   14.8   19.5   25.4   27.1   29.0
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            7.9    7.9    9.1   13.9   20.7   27.7   30.5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           4.2    4.2    4.8    6.8    8.6   11.6   14.0
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     8.0    8.0    8.5   10.6   16.2   19.1   20.7
:Gasconade River
Jerome                9.5    9.5   10.6   15.5   22.6   26.5   28.9
:Spring River
Carthage              3.8    4.7    5.4    8.0   10.8   14.2   16.2
Waco                  7.3    8.2   10.8   15.7   21.1   24.9   26.5
Baxter Springs        6.0    6.2    8.0   11.1   14.1   21.8   24.2
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.9    3.5    5.0    6.6    8.2   11.6   16.5
:Elk River
Tiff City             5.7    6.6    8.5   11.4   14.6   17.4   21.5
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring          3.2    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.7    2.5    2.5
:Jacks Fork River
Eminence              3.5    3.8    4.2    4.9    6.3   10.1   13.0
:James River
Galena                5.6    6.1    6.5    6.9    8.3   10.1   13.0

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Non-exceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/09/2019  - 06/07/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                4.3    4.2    4.0    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.6
Horton               28.6   28.5   27.8   27.2   27.0   26.7   26.5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            8.4    8.3    7.6    7.3    7.1    7.0    7.0
Nevada                3.4    3.2    2.8    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.2
:Osage River
Schell City          11.5    9.0    7.6    7.0    6.5    6.2    6.2
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       6.2    6.2    6.2    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.5
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            3.5    3.4    3.1    2.5    2.1    2.0    1.9
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           2.7    2.7    2.6    2.3    2.1    2.1    2.0
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     3.0    2.9    2.7    2.3    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Gasconade River
Jerome                3.8    3.6    3.3    2.5    2.1    2.0    1.9
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring          3.2    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.7    2.5    2.5

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf ...under the rivers and lakes tab
and experimental long range risk tab for more weather information.


$$



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