Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FGUS74 KSJT 071645
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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-091645-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1045 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

The primary factor in development of significant river flooding over
most of the region is the occurrence of excessive rainfall in
relatively short periods of time, even for areas where drought
conditions persist or have developed.

Current Major Points

 - Weak El Nino conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
 - These conditions are forecast to continue through at least this
   spring.
 - Beyond this spring the outlook for this El Nino is more uncertain.
 - El Nino should continue to play a role in the weather into
   spring.
 - Near normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation
   should be anticipated for the next few months.

The general outlook for specific basin areas in the region follow:

...Upper Brazos and Upper Colorado Basins

The potential for significant spring flooding over these basin areas
in West Central Texas is well below average at this time.

In the past 60 days, the upper Brazos and upper Colorado basins
have received below average rainfall ranging from 5 to 75 percent
of normal. Current basin streamflows are near average seasonal
baseflow based on the latest USGS streamflow index.

Reservoir conditions as of March 7

/CurrentConservationCurrent%
/ElevationCapacityCapacityConservation
Reservoir (ft)(ac-ft)(ac-ft)Capacity

Fort Phantom Hill1636.317003070030100
Lake Stamford1417.355157051570100
Hubbard Creek1183.31313298313298100
Hords Creek Lake1893.178443518661
Lake Brownwood1424.70128839128839100
E.V. Spence1861.5951727213988827
O.C. Fisher1874.011194451696714
O.H. Ivie1535.2755434029794554
Twin Buttes1931.5818245411669064
Lake Nasworthy1871.519615859489


The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next 90 days indicates
no change in drought conditions in the region. Extended 90-day
climate outlooks indicate 40 percent or higher chances of above
average precipitation.

There are equal chances of below, near, or above average
temperatures. The potential for spring flooding is expected to be
below average over the next 90 days.

REFERENCES/LINKS:

For detailed information on river stages and forecast for West
Central Texas:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sjt

West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC):
weather.gov/wgrfc

Precipitation Analysis:
water.weather.gov/precip/

Streamflow Conditions:
waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt

Reservoir Summaries:
waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Soil Moisture Conditions:
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml

US Drought Monitor and Outlook:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/drought

Texas Drought Information:
waterdatafortexas.org/drought
climatexas.tamu.edu

Climate Graphics (Outlooks):
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions

Local forecast and climate information for West Central Texas:
weather.gov/sjt

$$


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