Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FNUS74 KMOB 251322
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for CHICK 377 378...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Mobile AL
822 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...Lowest afternoon relative humidity across the burn
area will drop to near 40 percent this afternoon, with dispersion
increasing to 68. A weak surface pressure trough along the coast
today dissipates late while a more defined cold front approaches
from the west by daybreak Thursday. An increase in showers and
possibly a few embedded storms occurs as the front approaches
with the highest chances looking to mainly be in the morning.

Fog potential and other remarks...Fog not expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North to northwest around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 5900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...Increasing to 1798 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph becoming northwest.
Transport winds m/s.North 4 to 5 meters/second becoming northwest.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 68.
LVORI...............3 early becoming 1.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  20  16  13  11  12  13  15  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  69  72  74  76  77  79  79  78
RH..............73  63  57  51  46  45  42  42  43
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   5   6   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9
Mix hgt (km)....0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   12  12  12  12  10  10  9   8
Trans wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Trans spd (m/s).4   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Dispersion idx..26  45  55  63  68  68  67  62  52
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after midnight. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0400, then 1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph after
                    midnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...1798 meters AGL decreasing to 122 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest 3 to
                    9 mph late.
Transport winds m/s.North 1 to 3 meters/second shifting to the
                    southwest 1 to 4 meters/second late.
Dispersion index....40 decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 6.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  18  23  33  43  52  62  67  70  76  82  87
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
Temp............76  73  69  66  63  62  60  60  59  59  58  58
RH..............48  55  63  70  78  81  87  84  87  87  93  93
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   2   2   2   3   4   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   5   5   5   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 2.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8
Mix hgt (km)....1.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   5   3   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   8   9
Trans wind dir..NW  NW  N   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Trans spd (m/s).3   2   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   4   4
Dispersion idx..40  2   2   2   2   2   2   3   4   5   7   9
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning, then rain showers likely
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0700, then No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...335 meters AGL increasing to 1585 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph.
Transport winds m/s.West 6 to 9 meters/second.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 72.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  96  91  82  73  63  54  49  49  49  50  50
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  70  70  70  70  70  70  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  57  57  58  60  63  66  69  71  72  72  71
RH..............100 100 96  93  84  75  65  59  55  51  51  53
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.            10  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  15  17  18  20  20  20  18  20  20  20  17
Trans wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Trans spd (m/s).6   7   8   8   9   9   9   8   9   9   9   8
Dispersion idx..10  24  31  45  53  62  66  67  67  68  69  72
LVORI...........6   5   4   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...22
Requested by...Rodney Landrum
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807784.0/MOB
.DELDT 04/25/18
.EMAIL rjlandrum@fs.fed.us



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