Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FNUS73 KTOP 231051
FWSTOP

Spot Forecast for HOWE OAKS 2018...USFS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
551 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Cloud cover is quickly shifting eastward and should result in
mostly sunny skies for ignition time. Northeasterly winds (40 to
60 degrees) are expected to remain between 5-10 MPH through the
day. Mixing heights are expected to reach 5-6kft this afternoon.
Transport winds aren`t all that strong at 10-15 MPH, but should
allow for good smoke dispersal. Minimum RH values are expected to
reach the low to middle 20 percent range this afternoon. A wind
shift to the northwest is expected Tuesday afternoon with speeds
of 10-15 MPH. Rain chances also increase Tuesday afternoon.


.Period 1...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........25 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-700 ft AGL increasing to 5700-6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......300-700 ft AGL increasing to 5700-6300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........24  16  16  15  15  16  17  18  16  15  13  11
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............54  58  62  64  66  68  70  71  71  70  68  64
RH..............52  45  38  35  32  28  25  26  27  29  33  40
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.            10  10  10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........82 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
Mixing height.......5000-5400 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5000-5400 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........35 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in
                    the afternoon.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 3500 ft AGL late
                    in the morning, then increasing to 5500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon increasing to 6400-7600
                    ft AGL in the afternoon decreasing to 4700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 8 mph increasing to 12 to 14 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 3500 ft AGL late
                    in the morning, then increasing to 5500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon increasing to 6400-7600
                    ft AGL in the afternoon decreasing to 4700 ft
                    AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Baerg
Requested by...JASON HARTMAN
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807396.0/TOP



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