Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261807
MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western Idaho...far northeast
Nevada...far southwest Montana...far southeast Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261807Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity over
the next few hours. An isolated severe hail/wind threat will exist
with the strongest storms into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Satellite/radar imagery and NLDN cloud-to-ground
lightning data at 1800Z shows thunderstorms are beginning to develop
over the discussion area. These storms are forming in an environment
characterized by MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of
25-35 knots -- according to RAP mesoanalysis. Morning CAM guidance
suggests that thunderstorms will increase in coverage/organization
into the afternoon as continued strong isolation further
destabilizes the air mass. While the strongest storms in this
environment will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and
marginally severe hail, the coverage of these threats is currently
expected to remain too low for a WW issuance.

..Elliott/Hart.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   43241738 44511671 45151595 45741481 45831403 45611354
            45131329 44501336 43271353 42201374 41571406 41181467
            41141574 41491682 42061733 43241738




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