Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 220945

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 UTC Tue May 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N106W to 08N129W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N129W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is observed within 195 nm on either
side of monsoon trough and E of 90W. Scattered moderate is
within 75 nm on either side of the axes for the remainder of the



Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds
across the offshore waters of Baja California, where seas are
running 5-7 ft. Strong SW cross equatorial swell is moving into
the regional waters producing seas of 7-8 ft from 21N to 23N
between Las Islas Tres Marias and 112W. This swell will penetrate
southern portions of the Gulf of California through early Wed.
Generally light to gentle variable winds are noted over the
southern half of Gulf of California, while moderate S to SW winds
prevail across the north half as a broad low pressure center is
developing in the far N portions near 31N114W. Light NW to W
winds continue farther south across the Mexican coastal waters.
As mentioned in recent days, the main marine forecast issue for
the next couple of days is the arrival of long period SW swell
moving into all of the regional Pacific waters through mid week.
Large SW swell will keep seas in excess of 8 ft across the waters
of southern Mexico and the open waters off Baja California
today, as it mixes with NW swell off Baja California Norte.
Overnight and morning altimeter data suggests that the largest
and strongest swell is aimed for central Mexico between
Tehuantepec and Mazatlan.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light winds will persist into today,
then moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse briefly as sharp
troughing shifts slowly NW across southeast Mexico.


Gulf of Papagayo: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf
the entire forecast period as elongated weak low pressure will
prevail across Central America. Seas of 5-7 ft are forecast to
build to 6-9 ft over the Gulf and nearby waters through mid week
due to the strong long period SW swell arriving today.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast
through mid week. Seas of 5-7 ft are expected through tonight as
the SW swell reaches the coasts of Panama and Colombia.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected to the south
of the monsoon trough with light to gentle variable winds north
of trough as a weak pressure pattern remains over Central
America. Seas of 6-9 ft in building long period SW swell west of
the Galapagos Islands are expected to propagate northward
through tonight, building to 8 to 11 ft to the west and
northwest of the Galapagos Islands tonight.

Additionally, deep layered upper troughing extending from the
Gulf of Mexico southward into the western Caribbean will drift
westward and dig farther southward into Central America Wed and
Thu. This may induce a broad low level cyclonic circulation
across portions of the Yucatan and Central America, leading to
periods of heavy rainfall across the region. This heavy rain
could extend into the Pacific coastal zones of the region from
Wed through Fri.


A ridge extends from 1024 high pressure centered near 31N140W
through the Revillagigedo Islands. Latest scatterometer data
indicated fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N to the west of 130W,
between the ridge and lower pressure along the monsoon trough
and ITCZ. Elsewhere, the ridge is maintaining generally moderate
to fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and west of 116W.
Convergence of these winds with light to moderate SW flow on the
south side of the monsoon trough is supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms near the monsoon trough west of 110W.
Various overnight altimeter data also indicated 5 to 7 ft seas
north of 20N where winds are lighter, and 7 to 9 ft seas in the
trade wind belt between the monsoon trough as far north as 17N as
SW swell is moving into the regional waters.

The ridge will build north of 20N into mid week, enhancing the trade
winds especially near a developing weak low pressure along the
monsoon trough near 11N126W. Latest altimeter satellite passes
continue to show SW swell in excess of 10 ft south of 10N,
propagating northward. This will overtake the region east of 130W
today. Looking ahead, the upper-level pattern will amplify by
mid week, supporting development of another weak low along the
monsoon trough west of 125W.


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