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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FXAK69 PAFG 192138
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 PM AKDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

The upper pattern has several features of note this afternoon. An
upper low over eastern Russia near the Bering Strait will continue
to move north over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, high
pressure will remain in place across Interior Alaska through the
weekend. Periods of light snow and gusty winds will continue to
diminish along the West Coast tonight. Decent model consistency
continues through the weekend with diverging solutions for mid to
late next week. These differences have led to low forecast
confidence along the West Coast from mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Much of Interior Alaska is being dominated by upper level high pressure.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows very dry air sitting over the
eastern half of the state. This has allowed for clear skies this
afternoon. Weak energy lifting north over western portions of the
Interior will continue to spread mid and high level cloud cover
over that region. Temperatures look to remain mild, with 40s to
50s, and perhaps a few low 60s through the weekend. Next week, the
upper ridge begins to break down, as an upper vort max lifts
north across the Interior. This may bring a few light showers to
the region for mid to late next week, along with slightly cooler
temperatures by around 5 degrees F.

Flow along the North Slope will shift northwesterly as the upper
low ejects across the Chukchi Sea and north of Alaska.  Fairly quiet
conditions are expected, with periods of fog and light snow
through the weekend. Flow will return to the northeast by Monday
and continue through mid to late next week. Winds will increase
near 25 mph for Thursday into Friday. Low stratus and fog along
with periods of light snow will be possible through the later half
of the extended period. Temperatures look to cool through the
weekend from 20s, with single digit to teens for highs Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures then look to warm back into the teens and 20s
for mid to late next week.

The area of most uncertainty continues to be along the West Coast.
Light precipitation should come to an end overnight as the upper
low over eastern Russia lifts away from the area while high
pressure builds in from the east. Did issue a Winter Weather
Advisory for the Bering Strait Coast as winds will increase
Saturday through Sunday. Gusts near 55 mph will likely produce
areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility under half a mile.
The gusty conditions look to subside Sunday afternoon and evening.
Attention then turns to the uncertainty in the forecast for early
the mid next week. Model guidance develops an upper wave over the
Yukon Delta region and lifts it north ahead of a strong upper low
in the Bering Sea. The track and speed of the upper system is
uncertain, with the ECMWF bringing it north over the Interior,
while the GFS lifts in north along the West Coast. The ECMWF is
pretty dry, while the GFS does have precipitation along the West
Coast. By late week, a frontal boundary associated with the Bering
Sea low will push into the West Coast. This will likely bring an
increase in winds and precipitation chances along the West Coast.
The ECMWF is stronger with this frontal boundary and brings in a
bit more precipitation than the GFS.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-816-817-851-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-815-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$