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000
FXAK67 PAJK 122347
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 PM AKDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Rain and snow remain through the first half of the
weekend as onshore flow continues in the wake of a warm front.
Although no significant accumulations are anticipated, some places
may see minor accumulations should temperatures drop sufficiently
low during the overnight hours, though such temperature drops
will be limited, given the warm air advection attempting to enter
the panhandle. Expect that precip will be largely stratiform
Friday night, given the relatively warmer air aloft, before
switching back to a more convective pattern as cooler air begins
to move into the area. QPF will diminish significantly on Sunday,
and some areas will see breaks in the clouds. Precipitation will
come to an end across the area by Monday as ridging builds. For
additional information, see the long term forecast discussion.

No massive changes were made to the forecast. Wind speeds in a few
of the inner channels and in the southern Gulf were slightly
increased, and precip coverage was modified to better reflect the
diminishing chances of PoPs by late Saturday night, as well as
the location of the current weather system. Added chances of
patchy fog to the northern half of the panhandle for Saturday
night, along with some minor adjustments to temperatures during
the same time frame.

.LONG TERM...Headed into the long term, we will see showers
continue for portions of the panhandle but the overall coverage will
continue to decrease. There is a chance of some minor accumulations
from these showers but that will be limited to an inch or two at
max. These showers are expected to come to an end as we head into
the start of next week. As of right now, ensemble guidance continues
to show a ridge building into the area for the start of the week
which will lead to drying weather. With high pressure building into
the area, there is the potential for some fog during the overnight
hours with clearing skies. The one question that will need to be
answered as we get closer is how much moisture is available during
the overnight hours to help generate fog.

Towards the latter half of the long term, ensemble and deterministic
guidance is still struggling to agree on when the ridge will break
down allowing for more active weather to return. Looking at the CPC
6-10 day outlook, we are expecting a 40% chance of seeing warmer
than normal temperatures for this time of the year. For
precipitation, the current outlook shows an equal chance for either
below normal, near normal, or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR and IFR conditions will slowly slide southward
during the evening and overnight time period as a corresponding
frontal band slides southward. As the front slides southward
overnight, probabilities for IFR CIG conditions increase as low
level RH values near the surface increase. As for VIS, current rain
and snow are keeping VIS down to IFR and MVFR; however, as the front
slides south into warmer temperatures, these concerns near the
surface diminish with most precipitation type as rain. Behind the
front, post frontal showers with westerly wind will result in
rapidly changing conditions between VFR and MVFR to IFR late tonight
to the early morning hours moving west to east.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Saturday morning for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>034-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...NC

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