109
FXAK67 PAJK 012255
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Wed May 1 2024

.SHORT TERM...The pattern remains quiet through the end of the
week, as the steering flow continues to move systems S of the
panhandle. A lingering cloud deck over the central panhandle as of
Wednesday afternoon will continue to dissipate as it moves N. While
a marine layer may re-develop tonight, do not expect it to be
quite as widespread, given an anticipated wind shift to the SE
along the outer coastal waters as a system tries to enter the
gulf. Precipitation is unlikely to successfully reach the
panhandle - though some debris clouds Thursday and Friday can`t be
ruled out. For the panhandle, this means strong diurnal trends in
temperature, with high temperatures reaching into the 50s or even
60s, and low temperatures reaching into the 30s. Freeze advisories
have been issued for much of the Icy Strait Corridor as well as
Admiralty island, as the potential exists for temperatures to dip
below freezing in these areas.

Primary changes made to the short term forecast were the
strengthening of winds in the outer coastal waters Thursday and
Thursday night, along with bringing down low temperatures across
parts of the northern half of the panhandle. Made some minor
changes to sky cover for Thursday and Thursday night. Overall, the
forecast remains largely on track.


.LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Sunday night / Weak high pressure over
the eastern gulf and panhandle are holding in place through
Friday. A short wave will move from the southwestern gulf across
the southern gulf and southeast towards the Pacific Northwest by
Friday morning. A larger low moves into the Bering Sea Friday and
Saturday while drifting east. The associated frontal will move
into the panhandle area late Saturday, with main panhandle more
Sunday and continuing into early Monday. Widespread showers
behind the Sunday front will keep rain going into Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...Agreeable flying weather continues with light winds
and VFR over the majority of the region. Could see some areas of
MVFR CIGS in the south tonight, with MIFG for the morning at
PAKW.


&&

.MARINE...A developing marine layer in the NE gulf coast will
advect southward, bringing lower visibilities and some possible
drizzle. Currently, a modest amount of low clouds over the gulf
will descend, forming the basis for this marine layer. Expect for
this layer to infiltrate into Yakutat Bay Entrance and Cross
Sound, but not much further. During the morning on Tuesday, the
marine layer will retreat with continued high pressure over the
panhandle. Mostly light to 10 knot winds for the inner channels
with a northerly component. Lynn Canal is the exception, with
southerly winds, possibly increasing to 15-20 knots depending on
daytime heating in the north.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ317-
     320>322-324-325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...AP

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