071
FXUS61 KAKQ 161548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1148 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast today. Mainly
dry conditions prevail through Friday afternoon, but showers and
storms return Friday night through the weekend. Dry weather
returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1140 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Warmer and mainly dry today with partly sunny skies.

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1000mb sfc low pressure
centered off the coast of DE/NJ, with the upper low a bit to the
north, spinning across southern New England and Long Island.
Enough residual low level moisture remains for SCT-BKN cumulus
development for most of the FA, with thicker/ BKN-OVC conditions
on the eastern shore. As shortwave energy dives S on the
backside of the upper low this aftn, expect skies to average out
mostly cloudy for the eastern shore down through the Bay and
perhaps SE VA. The sky will be partly sunny elsewhere. Will
maintain ~20% PoPs for isolated showers on the eastern shore
through the aftn as well. In addition, could see a few
showers/tstms form over the mountains and move into our far
western counties after around 20z/4 PM. Any lingering showers
or isolated tstms should quickly dissipate by 8-10 PM. Highs
today will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s well inland to
the low-mid 70s closer to the coast. Becoming mostly clear
tonight, with lows in the mid 50s inland, to around 60F at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through mid/late aftn Friday, with a few showers/storms
  possible W of I-95 late in the day. Becoming unsettled with widespread
  showers and locally heavy rain possible Saturday into
  Saturday night.

- Showers continue on Sunday with high temperatures only in the 60s
  across much of the area.

Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area on
Friday before moving offshore by Friday evening. The low level flow
will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the
lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the
Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out
around 80F inland. The next system approaches late on Friday with a
few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the
day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM
Friday evening.

Unsettled wx is expected to prevail from Friday night through much
of the weekend. An upper shortwave is progged to slowly track east
from the MS River Valley to VA/NC from Sat AM through Sun. At the
surface, high pressure will be our NE along/off the New England
coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of
the upper low/trough. The guidance continues to show precipitable
water values rising to 1.60-1.80" by Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW
flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region in advance of that
upper shortwave. Off and on rain likely continues through much of
the weekend before rain chances end from north to south from Sun AM-
Sun night. The heaviest rain is expected from Fri night-Sat night,
with PWs dropping off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves
overhead. With E flow expected on Saturday (becoming NE on Sun),
temps will be below average (highs in the mid 60s-mid 70s on Sat
with 60s across much of the area on Sun). As such, sfc-based
instability will be quite limited after Fri/Fri evening. That said,
could still see a rumble of thunder or two across southern portions
of the area on Sat, with mainly showers expected by Sunday. WPC
currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy
rainfall of the past 24 hrs will need to monitor trends as this will
likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. At this time,
the forecast (through 12z/8 AM Sunday) has 1-2" of areal average
QPF, with slightly lower amounts on the eastern shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry weather returns early next week.

- Below average temperatures continue on Monday (especially near the
  coast), with warming temps expected by midweek.

High pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW during the
early and middle part of next week. Still relatively cooler (and
potentially cloudy with a few showers near the coast) on Monday with
continued onshore flow. Dry wx is expected from Mon night through
much of Wed as the high builds over the area before moving offshore.
There is a chc for some late day convection Wed. Again, highs will
stay a bit below avg on Monday, but warm to near to above avg by the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 625 AM EDT Thursday...

It is still VFR at this hour, but a period or two of high-end MVFR
CIGs remains possible through the morning at ORF/SBY before
prevailing VFR CIGs return by midday. VFR through the period at
RIC/ECG. Gusty N winds (to 15-20 kt) are possible from late
morning through early evening. There will be the potential for
another round of MVFR CIGs at SBY tonight into early Friday,
otherwise primarily VFR conditions through tonight (although
MVFR is possible late tonight at ORF).

Outlook: VFR Friday except at SBY and potentially ORF where
MVFR CIGs could persist through the morning. Another low
pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded
flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a
chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 655 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Marginal SCA winds and seas continue through today.

- Lighter winds expected Friday and Saturday.

- Extended period of onshore flow likely Sunday and Monday, with
elevated winds and seas.

998 mb low pressure is centered off of NJ this morning. Winds are
NNW 10-15 kt in the Chesapeake Bay (highest N) and 5-10 kt
elsewhere. The low will remain nearly stationary through the
rest of this morning before slowly drifting S and weakening
later today. There continues to be a downward trend in forecast
winds across all near- term model guidance through the next 24
hrs, though winds may touch SCA criteria for a time in the nrn
Chesapeake Bay this morning and early aftn (best chance 12-18z/8
AM-2 PM). Will maintain the previous SCA in the middle and upper
bay, but it will be extremely marginal and largely sub-SCA.
Cancelled the SCA for the lower bay and mouth of the bay w/ the
most recent update (cancelled the lower James earlier this
morning). N winds become 10-15 kt tonight. NE winds should
average ~10 kt Friday and 5-10 kt Friday night into Saturday
morning. Sub- SCA easterly winds expected Saturday. Another low
pressure system will move near or S of the area Sunday and then
looks to meander off of the Carolina coast through early next
week. With high pressure over srn New England, NE gradient winds
are expected for an extended period from Sat night through at
least Monday. At this time, winds look to be in the upper end of
the SCA range and highest across the srn half of the marine
area. Low-end gales cannot be completely ruled out. Winds look
to drop off considerably for Tuesday as high pressure nudges
southward into the region.

Seas this morning are 3-5 ft S of Parramore Island and 4-6 ft to the
N, where SCAs remain in effect. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay. Seas
will continue to trend down today and tonight but remain near 5 ft
out 20 nm N of Chincoteague through most of Friday. In terms of
headlines, the SCA between Parramore Island and Chincoteague
(ANZ652) was adjusted to end at 23z/7 PM today and the SCA N of
Chincoteague (ANZ650) continues through 23z/7 PM Friday. 3-4 ft seas
are expected everywhere Fri night-Sat night. The increased onshore
flow will increase seas considerably to at least 5-7 ft Sunday into
Monday. Waves at the mouth of the bay also increase to 4-5 ft, with
2-4 ft elsewhere in the bay.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1145 AM EDT Thursday...

Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near
Lawrenceville, Nottoway River near Rawlings, and Nottoway River
near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Rawlings are
expected to crest today, with levels at Lawrenceville and Stony
Creek cresting Friday. See FLSAKQ for additional information.

While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and
exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts in
the 1-2" range could lead to additional flooding across these
same areas into the early portion of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...AKQ