604
FNUS71 KAKQ 021323
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Dowdy RX Burn...Department of Forestry
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
923 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and warm weather will prevail today as high pressure remains
centred across the region. Maximum temperatures will top out in
the upper 80s with minimum relative humidty values dropping to
around 34 percent. Despite mixing heights increasing to 6500-7000
feet today, transport winds will be generally 5 mph or less for
the entire day. A backdoor front drops across the region on
Friday, with rain chances increasing Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 2 mph shifting to the southwest 2
                    to 5 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (27600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 to 38.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   0   0   1   1   2   2   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............76  80  83  85  86  87  87  87
RH..............52  45  40  37  35  34  34  34
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 4.5 5.2 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   2   2   3   5   5
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
ADI.............9   13  14  15  18  25  33  38
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   9   10  11  13  18  24  28
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 25.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   2   2   4   6   8   11  13  16  18  21  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............86  82  78  75  71  69  67  67  66  64  62  61
RH..............36  43  50  54  61  63  68  70  73  78  81  84
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 2.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   5
ADI.............25  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17  8   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 2 mph becoming 1 to 2 mph
                    early in the morning, then shifting to the west
                    around 1 mph early in the afternoon shifting to
                    the south early in the afternoon shifting to
                    the southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (34100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 40.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........22     19     26     36     50     56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............61     65     75     80     84     83
RH..............84     75     58     51     43     46
20 ft wind......W 3    N 4    NE 4   E 4    E 5    SE 6
20 ft wind gust.5      6      6      6      8      11
Mix hgt (ft)....500    600    1600   3300   5800   4100
Transport wind..W 2    N 2    NW 1   W 1    SE 3   SE 9
LVORI...........5      4      3      2      2      1
ADI.............1      2      2      5      26     34
Haines index....4      3      4      4      4      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      1      1      3      18     33
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...DUTTER
Requested by...Cameron Lipscomb
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413020.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Cameron.Lipscomb@dof.virginia.gov