233
FXUS64 KAMA 281844
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
144 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to make a run a
the northwest CWA late this afternoon and evening.  Most of the
showers and storms should dissipate by sunset, but there is a weak
disturbance that moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle that could help
keep some of the activity going overnight.  At any rate, not
expecting much precipitation from any showers or storms that would
happen to move across our northern CWA.

Surface winds converge along a trough in the eastern CWA by Monday
afternoon.  Surface moisture is not the greatest, but if a well
timed disturbance can move across, then there could be a
thunderstorm or two across the northeast CWA Monday afternoon.

Lows tonight are expected to be mainly in the 40`s. However, there
could be a few upper 30`s in the northwest with a few lower 50`s in
the southeast.  Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid
70`s in the northwest to the mid 80`s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Warm temperatures expected Tue and Wed with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s possible. Thu through Fri are looking to have cooler
behind a frontal passage. Fri being the coolest with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 70s. Sat may potentially rebound into the
lower 80s once again. Still some uncertainty out in Day 7.

As far as precipitation goes, Wed through Thu morning a dryline
may set up over the area again with many ingredients for a severe
storm potential for the eastern combined Panhandles. This is
looking like only a potential once again, as one ingredient may
still fall short with storms unable to initiate in the first
place. It is still quite early to tell how far west the dryline
will actually be and whether a cap will be in play to minimize
storm production. Have left NBM PoPs in for now with which give 20
to 40 percent to the southeastern third to half of the FA Wed
afternoon. NBM only gives a 10 pop the night before on Tue, this
will have to be monitored as some guidance suggests some possible
thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Tue as
well. Thu storm chances will all depend on the progression of the
front. If the front can move in slower and keep the dryline in the
east longer some thunderstorms may be possible in the far eastern
Panhandles on Thu as well.

Fri through Sat showers and thunderstorms may be possible also,
depending on the nature and progression of the H5 trough that
brings the initial front on Thu with more CAA on Fri. Some of the
models suggests this initial upper level trough moves off but is
followed by additional shortwave troughs impacting the area late
Fri into the weekend.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A few showers may make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites early
this evening, but have not mentioned them as confidence is low
that they will make it those sites. Otherwise, skies are expected
to remain VFR at all sites. Winds are expected to remain around 10
knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                47  82  51  89 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  44  83  53  93 /  10  20   0   0
Boise City OK              41  77  46  86 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  49  86  53  94 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              45  83  49  91 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  46  81  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               49  83  54  91 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 40  79  44  88 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  42  80  47  90 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                46  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                47  83  55  93 /  10  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   49  82  53  90 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                50  83  55  91 /   0  10   0  10
Wellington TX              50  84  55  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...15