223
AXNT20 KNHC 290533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 06N10W. The ITCZ extends from 06N10W to 00N30W
to 06N40W to 04N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01S to 04N between 15W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends across the Gulf
coast states, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds across
much of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds are noted off northern
Yucatan, in the Florida Straits, and in the north-central Gulf,
north of 25N.6 to 8 ft seas are over most of the Gulf east of
85W and north of 22N, including within the Yucatan Channel. A
recent buoy observation recorded peak seas of 9 ft within 150 nm
east offshore Corpus Christi, Texas.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken over the
next few days, loosening the pressure gradient, and diminishing
winds and decreasing seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will
pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and
south-central Gulf each evening through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The aforementioned strong ridge in the NW Atlantic is also
sustaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the lee of
Cuba, the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and south of
Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft, with the highest
seas occurring in the Windward Passage. A recent scatterometer
pass confirmed strong winds within the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the south-
central Caribbean Sea and the remaining waters in the NW
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic
will gradually weaken over the next few days. As a result, the
fresh to occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the
lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola will
diminish early this week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds will prevail. Northerly swell will bring seas of
8 ft through the passages in the NE Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 20N65W. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are noted in recent scatterometer imagery mainly east of
60W behind the front. 1025 mb high pressure offshore the SE U.S.
building in behind the front supports moderate to fresh NE winds
west of 60W. Winds increase to mainly fresh to locally strong
south of 27N and west of 70W. Strong winds are noted within the
Windward Passage. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are found over much of the
SW North Atlantic behind the front and in areas of fresh to
strong winds. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring north of 27N east
of the front to 50W. Farther east, broad ridging is supporting
moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas over the eastern
Atlantic south of 31N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken over
the far southeastern waters through Mon night. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds will prevail N of 28N behind the front to 60W with
seas to 14 ft. Also, fresh to locally strong winds will cover
the waters S of 22N and W of 70W through Mon. More tranquil
marine conditions are expected afterwards as high pressure becomes
centered over the NW waters.

$$
Mora