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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 162348
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
748 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push eastward tonight as low pressure tracks
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase early Wednesday
followed by rain showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Brief high pressure pushes across the area on Thursday night
before another weather front brings a threat for more showers on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM Update...

Adjusted temperatures using a blend of current observations and
the previous forecast. High clouds are expected to move in late
tonight/early tomorrow morning which should keep temperatures in
the mid 30s to low 40s.

230 PM Update...

Mostly sunny skies across the region this afternoon with ridging
overhead. Ridging will slide eastward tonight with low level
ENE winds that will keep the colder air in place for one more
night. Skies should remain mostly clear until early Wednesday
morning, so we should still get some efficient radiational
cooling. Decided to drop low temperatures below MOS guidance by
just a few degrees, with the coldest spots dipping down to near
freezing.

Warm front pushes northward tomorrow and clouds will increase
from the southwest in the morning. At this time, it appears rain
showers will hold off until the late morning or early afternoon.
Showers will push to the NE as the day progresses, with much of
the area seeing rain by tomorrow evening. Rainfall will be light
to moderate and not expecting any issues hydro wise with this
system. NAM forecast soundings are indicating some weak
elevated instability Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. This is generally west of I81, so an isolated embedded
thunderstorm is possible, but still not expecting anything too
heavy that would cause any hydro problems. Temperatures will
remain warm tomorrow night as well with the rain and clouds,
with lows only in the mid to upper 40s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

Rain showers continue through the day on Thursday, before
gradually tapering off later in the day. Temperatures will be
variable depending on location with highs in the 40s to lower
50s east of I-81 and 50s to near 60 west of I-81. Generally dry
conditions are expected Thursday night, along with seasonable
overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

The brief dry period doesn`t last, as yet another frontal system
quickly moves in from the west during the day on Friday. Exact
timing is uncertain, but chances for rain showers look to increase
up to high chance/low likely PoPs by afternoon over the area. If the
current timing holds, temperatures would rise up into the mid-50s to
lower 60s before the rain chances increase later in the day. Breezy
south winds at 10-20 mph are expected on Friday ahead of the cold
front. Rain showers are also likely Friday night as the actual cold
front slowly presses through. It will be cool, with lows in the low
to mid-40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Not much change to the long term forecast. Still looking like it
will be drying out, especially Sunday into next week.

320 AM Update

The weekend starts off with cool, partly sunny conditions and
perhaps some lingering scattered rain showers behind the departing
cold front on Saturday. Winds turn west-northwest and are forecast
to breezy, between 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. High pressure
begins to build into the area from the west Saturday night. This
should bring gradually clearing, and diminishing winds. It will be
seasonably chilly, with lows in the lower to mid-30s expected.

Sunday and Monday are looking dry at this time, under the large area
of high pressure. This should bring mostly sunny/clear
conditions...especially on Monday. Increased the diurnal
temperatures range by a few degrees each period, with it likely
being 1-3 degrees warmer during the day than the NBM suggested...and
perhaps a bit cooler at night in the lower to mid-30s again. This
looks to be a good setup for potential frost. At this point next
Tuesday is also looking mainly dry and mild, with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions expected through at least 12Z with high pressure
moving through. Precipitation moves in tomorrow mid day from the
SW with MVFR restrictions likely at ELM and AVP around 18Z and
not arriving at RME until closer to 21Z. Heavier rain showers
could cause brief IFR cigs or vis at BGM, ELM, ITH, or AVP in
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

Saturday into Sunday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...ES/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG/MJM
LONG TERM...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...AJG/MPK