342
FXUS61 KBGM 272351
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front swings through the region on Sunday bringing a
chance of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures
trend much warmer Sunday into most of next week. A weak front
will bring more rain showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update

Band of steadier rain is progressing quickly to the east this
evening, with drier conditions moving into areas near and west
of I-81. Showers will decrease in coverage over the next few
hours, but isolated showers will return later tonight. With weak
forcing, it is difficult to be too specific, but areas near and
north of the Thruway and north of the Catskills will be slightly
favored.

Also can`t rule out some patchy fog overnight, especially in
sheltered valleys where winds will be lighter. Cloud cover will
help keep things in check as well.


330 PM Update

Main concern in this period will be the potential for scattered
surface based thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening; a few
could potentially be strong, with gusty winds and/or small hail.

Light rain is spreading over the region late this afternoon as
expected and temperatures are falling back into the 40s where
the steady rain has developed. The elevated instability and
slight chance for thunderstorms doesn`t arrive in the northern
Finger Lakes to Syracuse metro area until around or after sunset
this evening. Forecast soundings from the 12z NAM have backed
off on instability some, but are still showing perhaps a few
hundred Joules/Kg of elevated CAPE overnight. Used NBM
PotThunder data, but lowered it some. Otherwise, it will be
mainly cloudy overnight with winds gradually diminishing. Lows
range from the 40s to around 50.

Sunday morning starts off mainly dry/quiet with the surface warm
front lifting north from the Twin Tiers to near I-90 by late
morning. The front looks to stall and have a hard time moving
north of the Syracuse--Utica--Rome area through the day. This
will keep more clouds, showers and lower temperatures up here.

Further south across the Twin Tiers, Catskills and NE PA
showers and scattered thunderstorms are still expected,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours, with the 12z
guidance continuing to show around 400-900 J/kg of MLCAPE over
the southern half of the CWA in the afternoon. PoPs were bumped
up into the likely range for Sunday, but it will not be an all
day washout. Deep layer shear is up to around 40kts in the 0-6km
layer, so if enough instability does indeed develop a few
storms could become stronger and better organized. SPC only has
general thunder over our area, but in their outlook discussion
they mentioned a few storms could produce gusty winds or small
hail. Will mention this potential in the HWO for now. Confidence
is low on just how much instability will be present by the
afternoon...considering some showers and clouds along the
aforementioned warm front. Overall, it will be much warmer, with
highs in the 70s for most locations...except 65-70 along and
north of I-90. Outside of the showers and t`storms it will be
partly sunny, and it will not be a washout. Surface winds turn
southwest as the front lifts north, at 5-10 mph. Again, guidance
is showing Utica/Rome staying locked in with an east wind on
the north side of the front all day.

Any evening convection dissipates heading into Sunday night. Mid
level ridging tries to develop over the area, but yet another
wave will ride along the top of the ridge and stalled surface
boundary in CNY. Much cooler, more stable air will be located
north of the front, which may sag south a bit overnight toward
the Route US-20 corridor. Overall, shower chances diminish
overnight, with it remaining partly to mostly cloudy. Mild with
lows in the 50s for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge sitting overt the area will be the main weather drive
Monday, bringing warm temperatures across the region. The upper
ridge extends into eastern Canada, generating a pretty strong
high pressure system centered to our NNE. The NE flow from this
system will butt up against the surface ridge over the Mid-
Atlantic. Models continue the trend of keeping the warmest air
under the ridge to our south, with the stronger high to our
north. This places a frontal boundary over the Twin Tiers
through the day on Monday. Some instability looks to develop
across the western Southern Tier into NEPA along the front, with
a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms forming along the
edge of the ridge centered to our south, riding the warm front
from NW to SE across the Twin Tiers. Temperatures will be in the
low 70s north of the Southern Tier, with upper 70s to low 80s
across the Twin Tiers.

The ridge axis drifts eastward through Monday evening and
overnight as a trough moves into the Great Lakes. Increased
moisture and lift associated with the trough should develop rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area, with areas
north of the Southern Tier having the best chance for showers
through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be warm thanks to
continued WAA around the top of the ridge, with temps only
falling into the upper 50s.

Tuesday will see a chance for thunderstorms, some having the
chance to be severe as the ridge exits and we get enhanced lift
from the trough and approaching cold front. CAPE values range in
the 500-1000 j/kg range with 0-6km bulk shear between 25-35kts,
although guidance is still a little muddled with the
thunderstorm chance parameters. Severe chances will depend on
timing of the front and how quickly the ridge breaks down
Tuesday morning. We will be keeping an eye on the trends here
over the next several model runs. Temps on Tuesday will climb
into the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s.

Hydrologically, we could see some flooding issues with training
storms will possible for a brief period in the afternoon as
corfidi vectors shorten a bit, but the LLJ looks to be weak.
Warm cloud depth is shorter than you would like for enhanced
chances of persistent heavy rain and PWATs are around 1.25in.
Rain showers Monday and Monday night could prime parts of the
area that if another round of rain moves in Tuesday afternoon,
we could see some isolated flooding issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures do not cool much behind the front as warm air
quickly moves back into the region with a ridge sliding into the
eastern US on Wednesday. Temps through the rest of the week
will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with warm overnight lows
bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Rain shower and
thunderstorm chances return late in the week as another trough
moves into the Great Lakes. Timing and strength of this feature
is still uncertain as guidance solutions vary greatly at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
745 PM Update...

The effects of a warm frontal passage will be realized across
the region through Sunday. Deterioration of ceilings is expected
overnight as the boundary pushes into abundant low level
moisture with all terminals reaching MVFR to Fuel Alt
restrictions probably before 06Z and definitely after. Brief
pockets of IFR and Alt minimum in mountain obscurations are
possible for the elevated terminals. The warm sector becomes
established by Sunday afternoon with ceilings improving to MVFR-
VFR, except for the northern third of the area where the front
may stall, keeping clouds locked in IFR. It`s a very low
confidence forecast at KSYR-KRME this cycle and medium elsewhere.
An upper wave moves through during Sunday afternoon,
potentially triggering scattered TSRA from 18Z-24Z.

Light S-SE winds tonight become WSW around 10 KTS by midday
Sunday. Variable gusts in or near any thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Ceiling restrictions expected.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning,
gradually scattering and becoming VFR by afternoon. Low chance
for an isolated shower or t`storm.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for a shower.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...JAB