000
FXUS61 KBGM 241806
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
206 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front is moving through early this afternoon
which will cause falling temperatures. Skies clear this
evening, leading to a cold night with lows falling into the 20s
for much of the area. High pressure will be in control with dry
weather Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1230 pm update...

A cold front is moving southeast through the Catskills and NEPA
now. Some rain showers are with and behind it. So far no thunder
and lightning has been observed. Instability and shear is weak.
Lapse rates are good with surface temperatures around 60. Still
a chance of a thunderstorm in the next 3 hours along the front.

Clear skies and dry air just north of Lake Ontario will move in
late today and this evening to clear our area and push showers
south. Rainfall amounts will be light and have no affect on
streams and rivers.

This cool dry air is ahead of a large area of high pressure
that will be centered over CNY/NEPA Thursday night. Skies will
be clear late tonight into Friday. Temperatures will fall into
the 20s tonight as winds become calm late. High temperatures
will be below average from the upper 40s to the 50s. Thursday
night will again be below freezing with lows from the mid 20s to
around 30. Again winds will be light or calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
330 AM update...

Surface high is in control keeping conditions quiet Thursday
night into Friday. Meanwhile upper level trough slowly lifts
north of our region with a ridge building in behind it. This
keeps cooler air in place for one more night allowing
temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. Clear skies
and light winds during the overnight period may contribute to
temperatures falling a few degrees cooler as well. Northerly
flow transitions to southerly flow Friday morning allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies
persist for most of the day with clouds moving in Friday night
ahead of the next system. Temperatures Friday night are expected
to range in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM update...

The upper level ridging expands over our area this weekend then
moves slowly east on Tuesday. Despite the high upper level heights
this will be an unsettled period. High pressure slides to our east
on Saturday with a low pressure system located over the northern
midwest. A warm front associated with this system progresses
eastwards along with rain showers that move into the region sometime
Saturday morning/afternoon. Showers may linger Saturday night
into Sunday behind the front. Warm and unstable air mass could
result in some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
possible Sunday and Monday afternoon. Upper level trough and a
surface cold front appears to move through sometime
Tuesday/Wednesday bringing more organized showers along with it
and another opportunity for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Deep south/southwest flow and ridge over our area allows
temperatures during this period to soar well above average
especially Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures peak Monday in the
upper 70s to low 80s across the region. Upper level trough and cold
front should bring temperatures back to normal by Wednesday. Granted
this system moves a bit quicker we could see the cool down start on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
140 pm update...

A cold front moved through the NY sites dropping cigs to MVFR
and even IFR at ITH. IFR is expected at BGM from 20 to 23z. ITH
should have IFR until around 22z. The northwest flow is aligned
with the Finger Lakes which is adding moisture.

Drier air comes in fast from north to south. VFR returns at
RME/SYR at 23z, then in south CNY at 01z, then at AVP at 02z.

AVP will have the best conditions with occasional MVFR from 22z
to 02z.

Northwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 to 25 kts until
00z. Winds become 5 kts or less by 03z. Thursday winds stay
below 10 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...TAC