000
FXUS61 KBGM 251729
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
129 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control with dry weather through
Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below
freezing again tonight. Saturday and Sunday, a warm front moves
through bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming
trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
130 pm update...

A large surface remains in control this period as it moves
southeast to be centered over the area tonight then to the
coast Friday and Friday night. The air with the high is cool and
dry at the surface. Aloft a broad upper level trough over the
northeast US will move east being replaced by a ridge centered
over NY/PA Friday night. The low level flow out of the north and
light this afternoon will become southwest Friday. Friday into
Friday night warmer air will advect in. After 2 nearly clear
days today and Friday, moisture will come in aloft late Friday
night.

With dry air, clear skies, and a calm wind temperatures fall
tonight into the mid and upper 20s and lower 30s. Friday
afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Friday night temperatures will be warmer again with lows mostly
in the 30s. Winds will be light with dewpoint temperatures
rising to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the region Friday night should give way to
an approaching warm front from the Ohio Valley. Initially  the
airmass looks rather dry ahead of the warm front. However,
enough lift and moisture eventually looks present by late
Saturday for clouds and spotty showers. One more clear night
Friday night but with southerly winds beginning to pick up
ahead of the warm front, low temperatures look to end up several
degrees warmer in the mid and upper 30`s. Even with the clouds
and spotty showers Saturday most locations should get to around
60 for highs. Top gusts Saturday afternoon are modeled to get to
around 20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clouds, spotty showers and continued southerly winds should continue
Saturday night. As a result, the warming trend continues with spots
staying well up into the 40`s. We look to be firmly in a warm sector
through Monday. While the warm front stays to our north, enough
moisture looks to be in place to continue a mention for isolated
showers and even thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as
well. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70`s
Sunday and even the low 80`s Monday. With the amount of moisture on
the increase low temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60
early next week.

The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around
1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s. In terms
of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to
be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to
thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty
wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have
a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any
strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over
the next several days.

High pressure attempts to build back into the region for the middle
of next week with a cooler Canadian airmass moving in as well.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
120 pm update...

High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals.

Northerly winds under 10 knots this afternoon become light and
variable this evening. Friday around 14z east to southeast winds
pick up to 5 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...TAC