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000
FXUS63 KBIS 150002
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
702 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms are
  possible tonight through Tuesday. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Low afternoon humidity and gusty southeast winds may lead to
  near critical fire weather conditions on Monday afternoon
  across the south.

- Expect cooler temperatures starting on Tuesday and lasting
  into the weekend. The coldest days will be Thursday and Friday
  when highs will mainly range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Some light snow is possible Wednesday night through Thursday
  night, mainly across the north. Little to no accumulation
  expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Little needing updating early this evening. Radar continues to
show light returns across central and northern portions. Dry air
in place has limited these to mainly virga showers. Chances will
increase for precipitation tonight, although current though is
this could delay until after midnight local time. Limited PoPs
to just sprinkle mention through the evening. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Western and central North Dakota currently sits under the
eastern slope of a low amplitude upper level ridge. Later
tonight, the ridge axis will move into western North Dakota as a
surface low starts to deepen to the east of the Rockies. Some
warm air advection showers will develop tonight and into Monday
morning, pretty much along the ridge axis and surface baroclinic
zone. RAP forecast soundings suggest the potential for 100 to
200 J/kg MUCAPE so a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the
question.

The main story for Monday will be the return of breezy to windy
conditions and the potential for some near critical fire weather
conditions. By late morning winds will increase out of the
southeast with the strongest readings generally along the South
Dakota border. Sustained winds in the 25 to 30 mph range will be
possible with a couple gusts to 45 mph. With the southeast
surface flow, we will not be as dry as we have been in recent
days but we should still dip into the 20 to 30 percent range for
minimum relative humidity Monday afternoon across most of the
west and south. Where the best overlap is, we could see some
near critical fire weather conditions, generally as far west as
Adams, Hettinger, and Stark counties, over to Morton, Burleigh
and Kidder counties, and down to Dickey and LaMoure counties.
This pattern would be a bit more concerning if we had dry
northwest surface winds, but near critical fire weather
conditions certainly seem possible. Highs will range from the
lower 60s northeast to the mid to upper 70s southwest.

Monday night into Tuesday, an upper low kicks out into the
central Plains while the surface low moves into Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should start to develop over the
higher terrain in eastern Wyoming and southeast Montana before
slowly moving into western North Dakota in the evening and into
central North Dakota overnight. As far as thunderstorm
potential, there will be some decent elevated instability
associated with this system. The latest RAP data suggests the
potential for MUCAPE ranging in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range by
late Monday evening, generally along and south of Interstate 94
(the higher MUCAPE values will be located near the South Dakota
border). 0-1 km shear values are forecast to be high, on the
order of 35 to 50 knots, but 0-6 km shear is only forecast to
max out around 25 knots in the same area. Thus, it seems most
of the shear will actually be present below any thunderstorms
that do form, limiting any severe potential. Some instability
may hang around across the south and east through the late
morning and into the early afternoon hours on Tuesday, but
should start to diminish through the rest of the day,
transitioning any thunderstorm activity to just showers. Tuesday
will also be the start the next cooling trend with highs
forecast in the 50s.

Most of the precipitation will move out Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but there could be some lingering showers
north (with some snow flakes possibly mixing in). An upper low
will then move across Manitoba to our north on Thursday. In
previous days, models have shown this low a bit further south,
leading to some snow chances across much of the state. However,
there has been a northern trend over the past few model runs
and most of the precipitation is trending well north of the
International Border on Thursday. Still, we could see enough of
a glancing blow to bring at least some light snow to our north.
Little to no accumulation is expected. After the aforementioned
upper low moves off to the east, mainly dry weather is expected
Friday and through the weekend.

Thursday and Friday look to be the coldest days of the period.
On Thursday morning we will see lows ranging from the lower 20s
to lower 30s and on Friday morning we will see lows mainly in
the low to mid 20s. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper
30s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. Friday may be just a
touch cooler, ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. While
it`s still a ways out, we could see the next warm up starting on
Saturday. Finally, breezy to windy conditions should prevail
every day of the week starting tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Clouds
go on the increase tonight into Monday morning, with scattered
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible. Confidence in
timing and location of these showers is still low to medium. For
now placed VCSH in TAFs with medium confidence later tonight
through Monday morning. Confidence was too low to include
precipitation mention in TAFS for Monday afternoon at this
time, although most sites will have at least a slight chance for
an isolated rain shower. As mentioned, non severe thunderstorms
are possible tonight through Monday. Confidence was not high
enough to include any TS mention at this time. Lastly, look for
southeast winds to increase on Monday. Some LLWS is possible in
the west as a result. Confidence was only high enough to place
in KXWA TAF for Monday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Anglin