824
FXUS63 KBIS 020607
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
107 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers will develop across the southwest and central
  North Dakota and spread north and east tonight.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday and again Friday.
  Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Sunday evening
  into Monday.

- Breezy to windy conditions are possible Friday, returning
  Sunday into next week.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through
  Saturday, becoming near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The forecast looks to generally be in good shape, although thus
far the band of the heaviest rainfall has setup just a touch
further east than most of what the high resolution guidance was
showing. These same CAMs do have another slug of moisture moving
up into the south central over the next 2 to 3 hours so we will
have to see if that comes to fruition and we see some more
significant rainfall in the Bismarck/Mandan area. For this
update just blended in the latest observations to the going
forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 946 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers continue over mainly south central North Dakota late
this evening but will continue to spread north and east through
the night. We utilized a blend of short term guidance to
updated pops through the night which really wasn`t much change
from the previous forecast. Main update other than pops was to
remove lightning for the remainder of the night. Updated text
products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers continue to lift northeast across portions of the
forecast area. The most substantial are over the southwest/far
south central and are forecast to become more widespread through
the evening. There has been a decent amount of lightning over
northwest South Dakota, but so far it has had a hard time making
in north of the Border. Current forecast keeps thunder limited
to the far southern tier counties this evening and this seems
reasonable. For the early evening updated we blended a consensus
of the latest short term guidance with our current pops. We also
added some slight chance pops in the northwest early this
evening to account for isolated showers moving into this area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A broad upper level low will slowly push into the area tonight.
As it does so, scattered becoming numerous showers look to
develop across the CWA. A general risk of thunderstorms
continues to be found across western and central portions.
Confidence in thunderstorms is fairly low through tonight given
the limited instability. There are some hints of some increased
cape moving in from SD in the southwest this evening. These
areas may be the more likely areas to see thunderstorms tonight,
although over confidence is low and severe weather is not
expected. A more broad area of showers is then expected to
develop ahead of the upper low across central and eastern
portions overnight tonight. Low temperatures tonight look to be
in the lower 30s to mid 40s, and most areas of precipitation
should be warm enough for all rain. Upper low then stalls across
the state on Thursday. This will linger widespread rain across
the east, and develop scattered to numerous showers across the
central and perhaps some western portions. Instability is
increased for Thursday, although still on the lower ends. Shear
is also low given the broad and stacked upper low pattern. Thus
a few thunderstorms are possible for Thursday afternoon and
evening, although severe weather is not expected at this time.
High temperatures on Thursday will be near to perhaps slightly
below normal, and generally in the 50s. The upper low then
becomes slightly more progressive for Friday. This could linger
chances for showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms,
especially in the north. A push of colder air will also lower
temperatures into the upper 40s to upper 50s Friday, with 30s
possible Friday morning. Perhaps these cooler temperatures could
allow for some snow to mix in Friday morning, with little to no
impacts expected. This cold push could also bring some increased
westerly winds on Friday. QPF totals in the next 48 hours, most
areas will have a 60 to 80% chance of seeing at least 0.10."
There is a 10 to 60% chance of 0.50" with the higher chances
coming in the central and east. There is even a 10 to 30% chance
of at least an inch of QPF by the end of precipitation on
Friday, mainly in central portions.

This weekend then looks to start off mainly dry. Saturday is
more of a transition day as the upper low pulls out of the area.
Temperatures could remain near to slightly below normal,
although winds are diminished and the chances for precipitation
are generally less than 10%. Sunday sees warming temperatures as
an upper level ridge brings southerly flow. A strong gradient at
the surface could also bring some breezy winds on Sunday.
Temperatures could warm into the 70s for most areas on Sunday.

Clusters then indicate the next period of active weather could
start Sunday night and continue into next week. A broad trough
looks to push into the region, with perhaps a cut off low
forming after it does so. There are some timing differences in
the clusters as well as differences how/if this upper low forms.
Overall though chances for rain look to return end of the
weekend into next week. Temperatures may start off mild, then
look to return near normal. Of note for Sunday and Monday are
the CSU-MLP chances for severe weather starting to return across
the west on Sunday and across much of the CWA on Monday.
Deterministic models are somewhat limited on instability during
this time, yet do have ample amounts of shear. Something to
monitor going forward. The other item to monitor with this
pattern is the potential for breezy to windy conditions almost
each day to start next week. This will depend how the surface
low wraps up. ECMWF EFI values are elevated each day to start
next week and will also be worth monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A disturbance will continue to move from south central North
Dakota into eastern North Dakota through the night. Widespread
showers will be possible across much of the central and east
along with MVFR ceilings. Western North Dakota will likely
remain in VFR categories through the period, including the
terminals of KXWA and KDIK. KMOT may also remain in VFR
categories through the period, although ceilings here may come
close to MVFR categories Thursday morning at times. West winds
will become breezy Thursday afternoon across southwest North
Dakota, with some gusts up to 30 mph at KDIK. Winds will be
generally light elsewhere.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...ZH