355
FNUS73 KBIS 090923
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Northwestern Lake WPA...FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
423 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be found across the fire
area today. A steady north wind up to 12 mph is also expected. Humidity
values this afternoon should hover around 37 percent. After a few isolated
showers this evening, a weak front will push through tonight. This will
bring dry and breezier conditions on Friday. Humidity values could lower to
near 30 percent, while northwest winds around 20 mph gusting to near 30
mph are forecast. Mainly clear skies and seasonable temperatures are also
expected for Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (104500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  36  36  37  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10
Temp............63  64  66  66  67
RH..............50  46  40  40  37
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  12  11
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  17  15
Mix hgt (kft)...6.5 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.18  18  18  18  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..105 111 116 118 117

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy then becoming
                    mostly clear before sunrise. An isolated evening
                    shower possible.
CWR.................Less than 5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph increasing to 10 to
                    15 mph after 0100.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (104000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  42  46  41  38  40  48  55  42  35  21  7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0
Temp............66  65  62  58  56  55  54  54  53  52  50  49
RH..............38  41  50  57  64  69  74  77  77  80  80  74
20 FT wind dir..N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  10  8   6   7   9   10  12  12  12  12  14
20 FT wind gust.15  14  12  9   10  13  15  18  19  19  19  20
Mix hgt (kft)...6.9 5.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  17  13  10  12  13  14  16  15  16  17  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..104 88  8   5   4   5   5   7   7   6   7   7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 22 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......8700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30
                    mph in the afternoon with a few higher gusts.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (48300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (126300
                    knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
                    excellent (224600 knot-ft) in the afternoon
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         18        27        24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............48        54        62        65
RH..............74        59        42        34
20 FT wind......NW 15G21  NW 17G24  NW 20G26  NW 20G26
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1200      6700      8600
Transport wind..NW 20     NW 23     NW 30     NW 29
Haines index....5         5         5         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..9         25        177       217

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Terry Gwilliams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413549.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Terry_Gwilliams@fws.gov