318
FXUS64 KBMX 021810
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
110 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

This afternoon.

A mid-level shortwave was over the ArkLaMiss Region at midday
while mid-level ridging was over much of the Southern and Eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure was centered to our
northeast across much of the Carolinas and Southern Virginia.
Locally, there is the remnants of a weak low-level boundary that
is only discernible by surface dew point analysis. This boundary
generally extended from northwest to southeast along the
Interstate 22 / U.S. Highway 280 corridor and latest satellite
imagery depicts low to mid-level cumulus development near and
northeast of this boundary. A few relatively shallow showers may
eventually develop near/north of this diffuse moisture gradient
with the lower-level cumulus through afternoon, but substantial
dry air aloft generally above 700 mb will help limit vertical
development. Highs will range from the upper 80s northeast to
around 90 far southeast. Winds will increase from the south and
southeast at 7-14 mph.

Tonight.

The mid-level shortwave is forecast to weaken with time as it
moves over our area overnight, but enough forcing from this
disturbance and the accompanying convective outflow boundary is
expected to support isolated showers generally along and northwest
of the Interstate 59 corridor with potential for a few showers
across the southwest arching northeast to south of Anniston.
Scattered showers will be possible across our far northwest
counties where a stray thunderstorm will be possible as well. Some
patchy fog is forecast to develop before daybreak across the far
southwest counties. Winds will be from the south at 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the low 60s in the higher elevations
east to the upper 60s southwest.

Friday.

The initial mid-level shortwave will continue to become more
diffuse with time as it moves over East Tennessee and North-
Central Georgia by mid-morning while a more defined shortwave
approaches from the southwest, moving over the area toward mid to
late afternoon. A cold front will become stationary to our
northwest, extending from the Middle Ohio River Valley southwest
through the Mid-South Region and extending further west into
Central Texas. Chances for showers with some thunderstorms
northwest will continue through the morning, with a decrease in
coverage and intensity expected due to the departing shortwave
before activity increases across all but our far southeast
counties in the afternoon as the stronger shortwave arrives. Winds
will become southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range
from the lower 80s far northwest to the upper 80s far southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday
night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak
nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms
into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north
where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this
system so severe weather is not expected.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough
moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there
will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with
elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating.
Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday
as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should
result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more
common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow
strengthens for end of this period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

VFR conditions will persist areawide through tonight. Expect high
to mid level clouds to increase from the west from later this
afternoon through the overnight as a series of mid-level
disturbances gradually weaken as they approach the area from the
west. There will be enough forcing to support a small chance for
showers this afternoon, but chances are too low to include at any
terminal location. Winds will increase from the south and
southeast at 5-10 kts. Later tonight, shower chances will increase
from the northwest with activity slowly advancing east toward
TCL/BHM first very early Friday morning with rain chances for the
rest of the northern sites through midday. Expect increasing mid-
level clouds with some low- level clouds possible early Friday
morning with some patchy fog potential southwest before sunrise.
Chances for showers will be too low to include at MGM/TOI through
this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Min RHs will be in the 30s again this afternoon with 20 foot winds
from the south around 5-7 mph. A few isolated showers may develop
during peak heating this afternoon, but chances remain low.
Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH
values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with
40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good
overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered
showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and
spread east through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  85  62  83 /  30  50  70  60
Anniston    64  85  63  83 /  20  40  60  60
Birmingham  67  84  64  83 /  30  50  60  50
Tuscaloosa  68  84  64  84 /  30  50  50  40
Calera      66  84  65  83 /  20  40  50  50
Auburn      65  85  67  83 /  10  20  40  50
Montgomery  65  87  66  86 /  10  20  30  40
Troy        63  87  65  87 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05