012
FXUS65 KBOI 062043
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
243 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A cold front
will move through the region this afternoon in southeast Oregon
and later this evening in southwest Idaho. Sufficient
instability with CAPE values around 200-400 J/kg, along with
warmer air ahead of the cold front will allow for a low chance
(<30% chance) of thunderstorms this afternoon. Heavy rain
showers are more likely, with heavier snow squalls/graupel
showers above about 4000-5000 feet today. Breezy winds will
accompany the frontal passage, with brief gusts close to 30-40
kt this evening. Gusty winds will continue this afternoon in the
Magic Valley, with Jerome and Gooding already seeing sustained
winds surpass 30 mph for much of the afternoon, and gusts
reaching 45 mph. Therefore, the wind advisory will be allowed to
remain through the 6pm time frame. Afternoon winds will pick up
again tomorrow afternoon in the Magic Valley as the low
continues to push east, so another wind advisory has been issued
for the Magic Valley tomorrow afternoon from noon-9pm MDT.
Scattered terrain driven showers will continue through Tuesday
and Wednesday throughout the region. Snow accumulation is
anticipated above about 5000 feet through Wednesday morning with
elevations above 6000 feet seeing as much as 4-6 inches and
lower elevations seeing anywhere from 0.5-2 inches.

Isolated rain and snow showers will continue in southwest Idaho as
northwest flow aloft remains over our region through Wednesday,
with widespread warming and drying beginning earlier in
southeast Oregon. Breezy northwest winds will remain intact,
especially over higher terrain in the Central ID mountains and
the Magic Valley.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...An upper level ridge will
begin to build into the region early on Thursday, beginning a
warming and drying trend through the weekend. Highs will be
about 10-15 degrees above normal, with about a 60-70% chance of
the Treasure Valley exceeding 80F for Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. Model agreement in clusters and deterministic
forecast models is high through Monday morning, with some
disagreement as we get into the latter part of the long term
period. There is a low chance of precipitation on Monday
afternoon, as some models show a weak shortwave trough moving
through late Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR in showers this morning, becoming VFR. Snow
level 4000-5000ft. Mountains obscured. MVFR-LIFR showers and
thunderstorms form along a cold front this afternoon, around
22Z-00Z/Mon KBKE KBNO, reaching KONO KEUL KBOI 01-02Z/Tue and
KTWF KJER around 04-05Z/Tue. Low visibility, graupel/heavy rain,
and gusty W-NW winds up to 40 kt possible along front. Sfc
winds: W-NW 10-20 kt, with gusts up to 40 kt near KTWF KJER.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 30-45 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered showers in the vicinity of the terminal
after 23Z/Mon. Brief MVFR to LIFR thunderstorms/heavy rain with
NW gusts up to 45kt possible 02-03Z/Tue along front. Showers
clearing after 09Z/Tues. Sfc winds: NW 8-12 kt with gusts to 25
kt.



&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening IDZ016-030.
     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday IDZ016-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA