160
FXUS64 KBRO 011132 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A somewhat active weather pattern is expected during this portion
of total forecast. A series of 500 mb disturbances will pass over
the Lone Star State in a west- southwest to east-northeast flow.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today
and Thursday, primarily over the northern ranchlands. Indeed, for
this time period, the Storm Prediction Center tends to keep the
northern half of the BRO CWFA in a general risk of thunderstorms.

Additionally, slightly above normal to above normal daytime high and
overnight low temperatures will occur, thankfully tempered by mostly
cloudy skies. And although breezy to windy conditions are likely
today, the strength of the wind will be below established WIND
ADVISORY criteria.

Finally, elevated seas will result in a MODERATE RIP currents at the
local beaches today through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A nearly zonal flow aloft with a series of mid-level shortwaves will
prevail through the first half of the weekend. This pattern will
continue to support warm, humid, and generally rain-free conditions.
However, convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain
of Mexico Friday afternoon/evening and again Saturday
afternoon/evening leading to low end rain chances, mainly across
portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures Thursday night
through Sunday will be above normal with overnight lows in the mid
to upper 70s and highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s,
except for the lower 80s near the coast.

Late in the weekend into early next week, the 500mb sub-tropical
ridge will build north into Deep South Texas leading to hot and
humid conditions across the region. Highs on Monday will range from
the lower 90s to around 100 degrees, except for the 80s at the
beaches, across the CWA. Heat indices of 100 to 106 degrees are
expected Monday afternoon. Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day
with highs in the low to mid 90s to lower 100s. Heat indices between
100 to 109 degrees will be possible Tuesday afternoon. A Heat
Advisory may be needed for portions of the Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR to VFR continue to be anticipated at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours. Moderate to breezy winds, mostly cloudy skies,
and no precipitation will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today through Thursday: An enhanced pressure gradient will exist
along the Lower Texas Coast during the period courtesy of the
typical high pressure and low pressure interaction. Moderate seas
and breezy winds are anticipated, and while Small Craft Advisory
is not anticipated to be needed, Small Craft Exercise Caution is
likely for portions or all of the lower Texas coastal waters
during the period.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Moderate winds and seas are
expected along the Lower Texas Coast through early next week. Wave
heights are expected to range between 4 to 6 feet. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions are possible at times, especially
across the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  77  89  77 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  75  92  74 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 91  77  94  77 /  20   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  76  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  77  82  76 /  10  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  75  88  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$