Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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218 FXUS64 KBRO 061741 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1241 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The main weather highlight through the short term period is the continuation of above normal temperatures and the onset of a warming trend across Deep South Texas. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will allow for continued Gulf moisture advection across the region as nearly zonal flow aloft prevails. Although this morning will start off cloudy and mild as stratus clouds blanket Deep South Texas, partly cloudy skies are expected by the afternoon hours. Increased insolation should allow for high temperatures to warm into the low 80s across the Lower Texas beaches to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with higher dew points, the heat index will rise above 100 degrees region wide... with the exception being across the Lower Texas beaches where heat indices will be in the 90s. Another mild and humid night is expected tonight with lows in the 70s region wide. Patchy fog may develop after midnight across portions of Deep South Texas. Otherwise, expect low clouds to develop once again tonight and persist into late Tuesday morning. Temperatures and heat index values on Tuesday will be 2-7 degrees warmer than Monday afternoon, with high temperatures likely reaching 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains and heat indices above 110 degrees across portions of the region. Heat Advisory headlines may be needed Tuesday afternoon for portions of Deep South Texas due to the combination of above normal temperatures and high humidity. Those spending time outdoors should take the necessary precautions against the heat, including staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and wearing light/loose-fitting clothing. For the Lower Texas beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents will prevail through Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The aforementioned HEAT ADVISORY conditions will persist Wednesday and Thursday as well above normal daytime high temperatures occur on both of those days. This synoptic situation will be the result of a dryline easing into the BRO CWFA from the west, producing a downsloping effect off of the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico. Fortunately, a weak cold front will ease from north to south through the region late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Much more seasonal daytime highs are anticipated for Friday through Sunday. An additional bonus will be the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the weekend courtesy of the cold front and a possibly secondary frontal passage as the weekend draws to a close. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 While mostly VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon at all the TAF sites. MVFR conditions are expected to return tonight and even some IFR conditions are possible during the overnight hours as well. Some models hinted on the possibility of LIFR conditions during the late overnight hours, but confidence for them was low at this point. MVFR conditions are expected to return for the morning hours tomorrow. Light southeasterly winds are expected to persist at all the TAF sites for the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Generally light to moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail over the Gulf waters and the Laguna Madre. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions cannot be ruled out this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, especially across the Laguna Madre where occasional gusts near 20 knots will be possible. (Tuesday Night through Sunday) Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast Wednesday through Friday due to an enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent passage of a cold front. Outside of this time period, generally moderate winds and seas are forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 77 92 78 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 95 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 83 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 77 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...64-Katz