983
FXUS61 KBTV 030850
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
450 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York
where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday.
Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry
conditions return to start next week. Conditions mid week
through Friday are trending wetter with daily chances of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...The region is currently between a shortwave
trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from
the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak northeasterly flow and
trapped low-level moisture, and they should persist for the rest of
the night. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys where
clearing has occurred, particularly where it rained yesterday. Due
to the cloud cover and some light winds, temperatures should not
fall much more tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The
ridge will build in during the day today and it will initially clear
out the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection
from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the
upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in the
St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high clouds
ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region not long
after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will likely be
filtered. The front will be able to spread a few showers into
northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly forced and falling
apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts should be under a
tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over Atlantic Canada will
be stubborn and prevent the rain from reaching Vermont. The high
remains in place for Saturday and the day should be be mostly dry,
even over New York, where at most there will be a couple light
showers. The high clouds should remain in place but an absence of
lower clouds should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Ensemble and deterministic models have
trended much drier Saturday night keeping the highly amplified
ridge axis over the North Country. This will delay the onset of
precipitation while flow aloft continues to stream ample
moisture northward. As such, QPF was cut from the overnight
hours with only a few hundredths possible over northern New York
and nothing for Vermont. Temperatures will remain mild in the
40s to low 50s. Frontal passage is still expected through
Sunday, moving quickly west to east as ridging shifts eastward.
Total QPF should be less than 0.5" with general amounts ranging
from 0.05-0.33". Highest amounts will be across the Greens of
southern Vermont with amounts decreasing northward. Temperatures
will be seasonal in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Post frontal thermal advection will be
near neutral given the replacing airmass will originate over the
central Plains. As ridge amplifies Monday/Tuesday, dry
conditions will prevail with temperatures warming above seasonal
averages into the upper 60s to low 70s.

The next wave continues to be projected to move into the North
Country Tuesday night through Wednesday night possibly bringing
another round of elevated PWATs, decent instability, and some
thunderstorm chances. Instability trends have decreased from
previous model runs, but will continue to monitor for potential
of stronger cells. For late week, guidance has trended wetter
with mean longwave troughing stagnating between the Great Lakes
region and the North Country. This pattern would favor active
weather and possibly keeping daily rain chances through the end
of the week. With fast flow aloft, any troughs moving through
will be moving quickly. Temperatures are expected to remain
around seasonal averages with colder air locked well north.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Ceilings have been gradually lowering this
evening and should continue to do so overnight. Confidence is
relatively high that ceilings will reach IFR at BTV while confidence
is lower whether ceilings will reach IFR at PBG and MPV. EFK and SLK
should hold onto their low clouds and fog overnight before it scours
out after daybreak. However, the IFR cloud deck at SLK could briefly
scatter out a couple times overnight. The IFR ceilings at RUT are
expected to remain the entire night but there is lower confidence
there. Ceilings will rise quickly after daybreak and all terminals
should be VFR by late morning. There should only be high clouds
during the day today but the clouds will begin to lower and thicken
tonight, though they should remain VFR for the first part of the
night. Winds are relatively light and are generally northerly but
they should transition to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is
not a concern.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski