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000
FXUS61 KBTV 132329
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous light rain showers, or higher elevation snow showers,
will wind down tonight. A round of somewhat heavier showers will
arrive Sunday afternoon. Drier weather will follow for the
first half of the work week, with the most pleasant conditions
expected for Tuesday, before chances for rain return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 729 PM EDT Saturday...Overall the forecast remains on
track for this evening through the overnight with just some
minor tweaks made to PoPs and cloud cover to match observational
and latest guidance trends. The back edge of clouds and precip
is shifting into the Ottawa Valley at this hour and expect
showers to end int he St. Lawrence Valley within the next 2
hours, Adirondacks and Champlain Valley by 11 PM, and eastern
Vermont by 1-2 AM. Skies remain cloudy through midnight, but
should see increasing breaks in the wider valleys by 6 AM with
some morning sunshine expected before our next system arrives by
midday Sunday.

Previous Discussion...Water vapor imagery this afternoon
shows an elongated, negatively tilted area of enhanced moisture
on the backside of the upper trough axis that has now passed to
our east. As such, we are seeing deep moisture interact with
upslope flow to generate a plethora of light showers.
Temperatures have been marginally cold enough to see wet snow in
the Adirondacks, with snow levels expected to lower slightly
into Vermont to see a small expansion of wet snow into this
evening with no impacts expected. Precipitation rates will
remain on the light side with lack of cold mid-level
temperatures to steepen mid level lapse rates. However, steep
lapse rates from the surface up to about -10 Celsius height are
supporting briefly heavier precipitation. With relatively high
cloud bases and drying pattern in the surface flow,
precipitation amounts will be very elevationally dependent.
Totals will be largely under 0.1" in most valley locations, with
amounts increasing to the 0.25" to 0.33" range along the spine
of the Greens where snowfall amounts upwards of a few inches
will be mostly confined to the summits. Precipitation should
gradually wind down and depart to the east through midnight, as
weak anticyclonic flow arrives from the west. Gusty west to
northwest winds are expected through the evening hours due to an
increasing surface pressure gradient, which will peak during
the early evening with localized gusts in the 35-40 MPH range in
the favored downsloping areas of the Adirondacks in western
Clinton County and Essex County.

For tomorrow, brief clearing is possible before clouds quickly
fill in ahead of a vigorous, compact low pressure system. The
latest rainfall amounts have trended upwards, especially in our
southern zones, occurring mainly in the afternoon hours with
high probability of rain showers, or snow at the highest summits
in northern Vermont and Mount Marcy based on expected low
freezing levels. The low freezing levels combined with some
elevated instability could support some graupel if it weren`t
for relatively warm mid level temperatures. Temperatures will
likely warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s before rain cooled air
causes temperatures to more uniformly drop into the low to mid
40s when the rain moves into the region. Lighter rain may
persist into the first half of tomorrow night before winding
down from west to east. With weak low pressure in the region,
winds should be light tomorrow afternoon trending northwesterly
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...Vertically stacked upper low continues to
rotate across far northern Quebec, allowing for lobes of weak
shortwave energy rounding the trough from Ontario into northern New
England. That means plenty of clouds with occasional light rain
showers to start the new work week, with the best coverage across
northern NY and northern VT. While snow could mix in across the High
Peaks of the Adirondacks, no accumulations and certainly no travel
impacts are expected. Typical high temperatures for mid April are in
the low to mid 50s, so forecast highs are quite close to
climatological normal. Forecast soundings suggest rather deep
boundary layer mixing up to 850 and even 800mb for certain sites, so
west or northwest winds could gust 25 to 30 mph at times. It will
pretty much be a rinse and repeat pattern for Tuesday, but with a
drier boundary layer, allowing for temperatures to reach mid 50s to
low 60s. So aside from the breezy conditions, Tuesday could very
well be the pick of the week with very pleasant weather for outdoor
activities. Lower dew points could also be mixed down from aloft,
and the adiabatic warming from a combination of downsloping
westerlies and deep mixing could lead to temperatures overperforming
compared to model guidance. Thankfully, due to antecedent wet
conditions, fire weather does not look to be a concern in this pre
green up environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...The weather pattern becomes more
unsettled towards mid week as we monitor a potential upper level
disturbance emerge out of the Four Corners region and track towards
the Great Lakes. The impacts from this feature will depend on how
far west the low pressure tracks with respect to our region.
Hydrologic concerns are not out of the question but that will hinge
on how much rainfall and how warm our region gets. The other silver
lining is that we will be several days removed from the recent
widespread rainfall event so creeks and rivers should have had
plenty of time to return to lower base flow. But for now given the
usual forecast uncertainty at this time frame, have largely stuck to
blended guidance. After the system exits, it looks like we are back
to rather pleasant spring weather with seasonable highs in the 50s.
This is consistent with the CPC`s latest 6-10 day temperature
outlook with equal chances of below and above normal temperatures
across our region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings this evening
will trend towards VFR at all sites after midnight with breaks
of clearing expected from 09-14Z before clouds fill back in and
eventually lower to MVFR across northern New York after 18Z and
Vermont after 21Z. Rain ends across the region this evening by
midnight, then returns tomorrow from 16Z onward. Gusty winds
up to 20kts and areas of LLWS this evening will abate overnight
and range from 4-8kts thereafter from south to west through the
day Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Lahiff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV