Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 260814
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
414 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Milder temperatures and dry weather will give way to showers for
this afternoon through most of Wednesday. Cooler, but seasonable
temperatures return for Wednesday into the weekend. Dry weather
returns for Thursday and Friday before the potential for
showers increases over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over New England and a slow moving low over the upper
Mississippi Valley will continue to send warm air into the region
today. A 50 knot low level jet between the two systems will maintain
the risk for strong winds in the typical south-southeast downslope
areas this morning. The greatest risk for stronger winds will be
found between Lake Erie and the Chautauqua Ridge where 45-50 mph
wind gusts have already occurred early this morning. A wind advisory
remains to cover this risk this morning. A lesser wind threat
will be found across the remaining higher terrain of the western
Southern Tier and on the north facing slopes of the Tug Hill
where gusts up to 35-40 mph will be possible.

An approaching pre-frontal trough with strong jet-induced ascent
will push a band of light to moderate rain showers into western New
York this afternoon. This band of showers will be slow moving as the
upper flow runs parallel to the trough. Temperatures will be mild
today as temperatures climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s across
the majority of the region.

The pre-frontal trough will pass through the region tonight keeping
the likelihood for showers, although a break in the shower
activity should be found between the pre-frontal trough and the
main surface cold front. It will be a mild night with overnight
lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Prefrontal trough Wednesday will be to our east, but with the
passage of the main cold front later in the day, a wealth of clouds
and perhaps a rain showers/sprinkle will remain possible. This
front, passing across our region Wednesday night, will stall to our
east as a east coast wave of low pressure rides northward along the
front. The axis of deeper moisture, and track of this wave, will
remain just to our east Thursday, with our region dry, albeit still
cloudy across eastern zones.

Mild ahead of this front Wednesday, possibly touching 60F to the
east. Cooler Thursday behind the front, with highs close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level trough axis will pass through the region early Friday,
with dry mid levels supporting partly to mostly sunny skies still.

Weak ridging Saturday will bring temperatures a degree or two warmer
than Friday. The 00Z GFS drives a low amplitude shortwave across our
region Saturday with rain showers, while the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z CMC
focus more on building the ridge and flattening out this
shortwave...leaving Saturday dry and mild. Will continue with low
chance PoPs for Saturday, highlighting SW NYS.

High pressure Sunday will bring fair weather. The next system for
next week will develop over the Central Plains. A warm front will
expand towards our region, possibly bringing rain or rain/snow
showers to our region as early as Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found throughout the region through at least
18z. Surface wind gusts and LLWS will be an issue through today.
A stout low-level inversion will lead to LLWS with winds at 2K feet
of 40 to 45kts. As the inversion dissipates during the morning,
surface wind gusts will increase at all terminals. Gusts up to
25 knots are anticipated.

Rain showers will move into western New York this afternoon along a
pre-frontal trough. MVFR conditions may develop at KBUF, KIAG and
KJHW toward 00Z.

Outlook...

Tonight and Wednesday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place, although winds
will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given that the flow will be mainly
offshore, the choppiest conditions will be found in Canadian waters.
However, with more of an easterly component to the wind developing
across central and western Lake Ontario, near Small Craft conditions
will be found from near Sodus Bay westward. Winds will reach Small
Craft threshold along Lake Erie as winds downslope off the
Chautauqua Ridge.

Flow will remain mainly offshore through mid week, however winds
(and possibly waves at times) may near Small Craft Advisory
thresholds on both lakes through this period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/RSH/TMA


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