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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162123
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
323 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday night...

Spring conditions today will depart will an approaching cold front
from the NW, associated with an upper trough building into the
Northern Rockies. Ample moisture is present with this system,
however, because of the quick hitting nature of it the highest
precip chances will be confined south and west of a line from
Harlowtown to Billings to Lodge Grass to Sheridan.

Precipitation for lower elevations will fall as rain, with
temperatures falling into the 30s and 40s for overnight lows. As
temps drop into the mid 30s, a rain/snow mix is possible as far
north/east as Billings. Current snow ratios are in the single
digits, along with above-freezing temps, snow accumulations are
expected to remain negligible. Moving into the mountains and
foothills, deep moisture with N/NW flow, initial precip in the
foothills is shown to be rain to a rain/snow mix before quickly
changing to snow as temperatures and snow levels drop. 850mb flow
tries to turn over to the N/NE a bit overnight, which could give
the mtns and foothills enhanced snowfall. However, a strong mid-
level jet may shuttle a lot of moisture over the mountains and
result in little mountain turbulence that would otherwise benefit
local topographical snow enhancement. Snow ratios in the mountains
and foothills in the 10s to 1 will result in periods of heavy
snow as well. The Winter Storm Warnings for the
Absaroka/Beartooths, Big Horns, and Pryor Mountains will begin
this evening at 6pm MDT. Latest forecasted snow amounts for these
warnings range from 10-20 inches. Models have shown higher QPF
amounts lingering in Sheridan County tomorrow, allowing for
additional snowfall in the mountains. A Winter Storm Warning will
also begin at 6pm MDT for the Beartooth and Red Lodge Foothills
where 6-10 inches of snowfall are possible. Winter Weather
Advisories will go into effect for the Western Valleys at 6pm MDT, the
Western Foothills at 9pm MDT, and the Sheridan Foothills/Southern
Big Horn Coutny at 12am MDT. Amounts for these advisories are 2-6
inches.

With the heaviest period of snowfall occurring Wednesday morning,
locations in these Winter Storm Warnings should prepare for
hazardous commutes as roads will be slushy and slick. Models still
disagree as to how long precipitation will continue falling
tomorrow, with some models clearing it out quickly, and others
keeping periods of moderate to high chances through the afternoon.

Another note is the gusty winds much of the area has seen today,
these winds are slowly decreasing ahead of the advancing cold
front, but gusts in the 30-40mph range are expected into the
evening. Outside of travel impacts, these conditions will be
hazardous to young livestock Tuesday night through Wednesday, so
take precautions if necessary.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 30s
and 40s, with overnight lows in the upper teens (mountains) and
20s.

Relevant snowfall probabilities can be found at weather.gov/byz

Matos

Thursday through Monday...

The main impactful weather for the extended period will be the
colder than average temperatures through the end of the week. High
temperatures Thu-Sat will be mainly in the 40s which is 10 to 15
degrees cooler than average. Average lows should be in the low to
mid 30s, but for the early extended period they will be in the low
to mid 20s with some teens sprinkled in. So, make sure to protect
tender vegetation until overnight temperatures warm up Sunday
night. These cool/cold temperatures are brought to us by an
anomalous west to east oriented trof aloft. Under the trof winds
will be generally out of the north Thursday/Friday which will keep
not only the cool temperatures, but a chance for upslope
rain/snow showers for north facing foothills locations, and maybe
a few orographically derived convective bands that could bring a
bit of precipitation off the higher terrain. None of this
precipitation looks impactful at this time.

The upper trof finally exits the area on Sunday, but another
disturbance drops in behind it from the northwest heading into
Monday. At this point precipitation with this system looks to stay
north of the forecast area, but it will increase west to northwest
winds over the area. This will help to boost highs back into the
60s to start next week. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue through this afternoon. After 00z flight
conditions will deteriorate over the western mountains and
foothills (KLVM) as a cold front moves into the forecast area. By
06z the probability of ceilings under 3kft is near 50 percent
south of a K3HT to KBIL to KSHR line, with probabilities of
ceilings under 1000 feet in the 10 to 25 percent range for the
same area. By 12z areas south/west of a KRPX to K4BQ line will be
in the 35 to 60 percent range for ceilings under 3000 feet, and
this will last until around 18z when ceilings will begin to lift
diurnally. Expect rain/snow mix for elevations below 4500 feet,
with snow above tonight. Mountain/pass obscuration can be expected
after 03z for western mountains, and into the Pryor/Bighorn
mountains after 07z.

North/Northwest winds will remain strong (gusts 35 to 48kts) this
afternoon for areas from Rosebud county east, weakening by 02z.
For areas west of Rosebud county, the strongest winds have likely
already occurred, and expect weakening winds through the rest of
the afternoon. Winds tonight will continue to gust 15 to 30kts at
times out of the north/northwest. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/045 028/046 024/043 025/050 031/064 039/063 038/069
    75/S    11/B    11/B    11/U    02/R    11/B    11/B
LVM 030/042 021/043 021/041 022/048 031/061 034/061 035/066
    86/S    21/B    11/B    11/B    12/R    11/B    12/R
HDN 036/048 027/047 023/044 023/052 027/065 037/064 037/071
    65/O    11/B    11/B    11/B    01/U    21/B    11/B
MLS 038/048 028/043 023/040 021/046 027/063 038/062 038/068
    01/N    11/N    00/N    00/B    01/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038/048 027/044 023/041 022/048 027/064 038/060 038/067
    12/O    00/N    00/N    00/B    01/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 033/047 025/040 020/038 018/046 024/060 035/058 034/063
    01/N    11/N    00/N    00/B    00/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 032/042 021/043 019/041 020/047 024/063 034/060 033/066
    88/S    31/N    11/B    12/S    01/U    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 34-141-170-172.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Thursday FOR
      ZONES 40-64-65.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until noon MDT Thursday FOR
      ZONES 56-66.
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 PM MDT
      Thursday FOR ZONES 67-68-171.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 138-169.
WY...Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 PM MDT
      Thursday FOR ZONE 198.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings