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000
FXUS62 KCAE 231742
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
142 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the coast tonight. A front comes through
Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing a slight chance of
light showers for some areas. Fair and slightly cooler Thursday.
Weak surface high pressure will generally remain over or near
our vicinity Friday through Monday. Fair weather generally
expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure moves off to the east of the cwa this evening. Dry
airmass will still be in place, and do expect to see light
southwesterly to calm winds. A warm advection flow just above a
shallow inversion should produce enough mixing near the surface
to begin moderating lows tonight back to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Southwesterly flow is expected to again increase on Wednesday as
a front approaches from the north. This is expected to feature
gusts upwards of 20 mph during the afternoon hours and to fuel
warm air advection. Highs will bump back up near or slightly
above normal, with highs generally 78-82F across the FA. The
cold front is forecast to approach from the north by late
afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of this, PWs are forecast to
jump into the 1"-1.25" range which should help yield isolated
to scattered showers along and ahead of the front. These likely
will not put down much rainfall but likely just enough to
measure. Temps should fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by
Thursday morning. Speaking of Thursday, the weather looks nice
again with highs in the upper 70s and mostly sunny skies. Lows
overnight should be in the 50s as high pressure settles in and
southeasterly flow helps moisten us up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low-level high pressure is forecast to be the dominant feature
in this period. The center of this is likely to our east and
northeast through at least Monday, setting us up for
southeasterly onshore flow in the 1000-850 hPa layer. This is
typically a favorable setup for low clouds in the mornings, so
expect at least a day of that, but otherwise, mostly fair
conditions are likely through the period. Mid and upper level
heights are forecast to be near the 90th percentile (per NAEFS),
so a slow moderation in temps is likely through the weekend.
Highs will likely be in the low 80s Saturday but should be in
the mid to upper 80s by the end of this period. There is some
indication that the ridging will finally break down by this
time next week, but forecaster confidence is low in this at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR mostly expected through the next 24 hours, with the
exception of the development of patch river fog near ags/ogb
once again Wednesday morning.

Dry airmass remains tonight into Wednesday morning, and this
should keep skies mostly clear through the period. Winds light
south to southwesterly this afternoon, then becoming calm
overnight. Winds increase after the morning inversion breaks
around 14z Wednesday at all locations, with speeds increasing to
around 10 knots and gusts approaching 20 knots possible. As for
fog formation, so not expect any widespread fog, but as usual
can not rule out brief periods of lower visibilities at ags/ogb
early Wednesday morning if river fog develops and moves in and
out. One limiting factor tonight would be stronger winds just
above the shallow inversion keeping low-levels just mixed
enough. Low confidence so will keep out of tafs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$