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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160543
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the area through tonight. An
area of low pressure will lift a warm front north across the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, extending a cold front east through
the area by Wednesday evening. Another cold front will cross the
region towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Clear skies and a dry airmass persists across the area this
evening. No changes needed to the forecast at this time.

Previous discussion...Mainly quiet weather is expected through
the near term period under the influence of high pressure.
Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder are possible
towards the end of the period late Tuesday night.

For the remainder of today, did lower dew points slightly given
the abundance of dry air in the boundary layer underneath a
weak inversion. Followed this same trend (50/50 blend of 10%
NBM/NBM) for Tuesday as well, resulting in minimum RHs in the
low to mid-30s. Low pressure will move into the Upper Midwest by
late Tuesday night as it begins to occlude and lifts a warm
front north across the area. Showers will become more widespread
across the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning, mainly associated with weak isentropic lift. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible, although instability will
largely be limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rain moves across the region Wednesday morning with once again the
uncertainty of how much the area can destabilize ahead of a cold
front that arrives Wednesday evening. There looks to be plenty of
shear but the lower level instability will dictate the strength of
what we see during the evening hours. The only thing that looks
certain is that we will keep the region wet with another .5 to 1
inch of rain for the event. On Thursday the area looks to be between
storm systems with a short period of dry conditions anticipated. The
next round of showers may arrive Thursday night as low pressure
tracks eastward near the Ohio River.

Highs range from the mid 60`s to mid 70`s on Wednesday unless cloud
cover remains thicker than expected. Cooler in the wake of a cold
front THursday with highs mostly in the 60`s. Lows range from the
mid 40`s to mid 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain should end from west to east through Friday afternoon. High
pressure then ridges over the CWA from the west Friday evening, then
persists into Monday. After highs in the 60`s Friday it will be cool
Saturday through Monday with highs in the 50`s to maybe lower 60`s.
It looks to be chilly each night with 30`s common. There will be a
threat of frost Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure ridging will continue to build eastward through
early this morning. A warm front will begin to lift
northeastward late this morning and afternoon. High level clouds
will enter from southwest and move northeastward through the TAF
period. Rain showers along the warm front will struggle to
reach most terminals this afternoon and evening as we remain
very dry in the low levels. For now, only have VCSH for showers
associated with the warm front at KFDY.

Shower coverage will then increase from west to east late
tonight into early Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Have begun
to introduce VCSH for these showers at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD and at the
30 hour KCLE TAF. Can`t rule out embedded thunder in showers
late tonight/early Wednesday but opted to leave any thunder
mention out of the TAF for now.

Somewhat light and variable winds overnight tonight become
generally easterly at 5-10 knots by late morning. Winds begin to
turn southeasterly near the end of the TAF period but will
generally remain between 8 and 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Wednesday. Non-VFR may return by Friday into Saturday
in rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Ridge remains over the lake through the night but it will shift to
the east through Tuesday afternoon as a warm front moves northward
from the middle Mississippi River Valley. Northeast to east winds
increase as low pressure moves to the western Great Lakes late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Speeds will approach 20 knots
and will need to be monitored for a small craft advisory as waves
build along the longer fetch. A cold front will cross the region
Wednesday evening into the overnight with southerly winds becoming
southwest to west. Speeds once again approach 20 knots and will need
to be monitored for a small craft advisory on Thursday. The next
area of low pressure may move eastward near the Ohio River Thursday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...KEC/Kahn
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...MM