Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 251821
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
121 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory in effect this afternoon
  across the west.

- High risk of rip currents today.

A mid to upper level low will traverse the Central Plains today,
pushing a frontal boundary across the area. At the lower levels,
a tight pressure gradient in response to a surface low over the
Southern Plains has maintained strong southerly winds over the
region this morning. Winds are forecast to weaken to more
moderate levels later this morning as a dryline/frontal boundary
approaches the area from the northwest. However, very dry and breezy
to windy conditions will quickly develop behind it, especially
out west, where another round of wind gusts to 40-45 MPH is in the
cards for the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for La
Salle and Webb counties from noon through 7 PM this evening, as
wind probabilities (HREF) of exceeding 40 MPH where between
60-80%. In addition, the Fire Weather Watch has been replaced by a
Red Flag Warning also over La Salle and Webb counties this
afternoon, as the strong winds will combine with very low minimum
RH values to create Critical fire weather concerns (see Fire
Discussion below).

Although the dryline/boundary will move across the area quickly,
an isolated shower/thunderstorm may still impact portions of the
Victoria Crossroads ahead and along it this morning (PoPs <30%).
A few showers have already developed along the boundary early this
morning over portions of the Texas Hill Country. This line will
approach the Crossroads region around mid morning, and exit into
the waters by the afternoon, effectively ending the rain chances.

With a strong southerly flow persisting over the offshore waters
this morning, and taking under consideration buoy 42019 is
indicating very high swell periods (>10 seconds), have gone ahead
and issued another High risk for rip currents today. Conditions
are likely to improve throughout the day as the flow becomes
offshore in response to the passing boundary, but in the morning
the threat will remain High.

More benign weather conditions will follow the boundary tonight
into Tuesday, with the winds gradually diminishing and with
slightly cooler air arriving as a surface high pressure settles
in. After another warm day today with highs in the 80s, overnight
lows tonight are forecast to dip into the 50s areawide. Tuesday
will be a few degrees cooler, with highs ranging from the low 70s
along the immediate coast to the low 80s out west under sunny to
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

We open up the long term period with a broad trough swinging
through the area. At the surface, high pressure will remain in
control for much of the work week. This will keep the majority of
the forecast rain-free. However, if we do our best to find any
sort of hope for rain, we can take a look at the H7 levels on
Wednesday. A H7 vort max is tugged through the region as the main
trough lifts towards the SE US. Forecast soundings reveal a thin
layer of moisture around H7 so it`s possible that we could push
out some isolated activity. However, confidence is very low in
this outcome as the lower levels are very dry. Towards the end of
the work week, the surface high will slide east as upper level
ridging settles in. As a result, onshore flow will return to the
region. Once onshore flow resumes, a warming trend will kick in
with highs bouncing back into the mid 80s to upper 90s by the
weekend. It may be breezy at times Friday through the weekend as
southeasterly flow strengthens as a low deepens over the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Some MVFR ceilings will persist over site VCT for the next hour or
so before becoming prevailing VFR conditions across the area as
skies clear out. Winds out west could gust in excess of 30 knots
this afternoon into the evening with around 25 knot gusts at the
coastal TAF sites. Winds will become light and variable this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A strong south to southwest flow will persist across the coastal
waters through this morning. An approaching boundary will shift
winds around to the west and northwest in the afternoon with winds
weakening to more moderate levels. Seas however, will be slow to
respond. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect
through 1 PM today over all marine zones, and through 4 PM
offshore. A few showers will be possible ahead and along the
boundary this morning. A weak to moderate offshore flow will
develop tonight, and persist through Tuesday. A weak to moderate
east-northeasterly flow will continue through mid weekend. Winds
will shift around to the southeast through the day Thursday and
continue through the weekend. Winds may increase to moderate to
occasionally strong levels at times this weekend over the offshore
waters as a surface low deepens over the Plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A dryline/boundary will move across the region today leading to
strong winds and low minimum RH values across portions of the
Brush Country. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for La Salle
and Webb counties from this afternoon through this evening as
Critical fire weather conditions are expected. Wind gusts as high
as 45 MPH and RH values as low 10-15% are expected in the area
under the Warning. Conditions are expected to improve tonight as
the winds decrease. Very low RH values are in store out west again
tomorrow, but winds will remain light enough to negate additional
fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  56  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          81  51  75  50 /  20   0   0   0
Laredo            87  55  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             86  53  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          84  59  77  59 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           84  52  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        87  55  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       87  61  78  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-239.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-239.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ255-
     270.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...NP/92


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