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000
FXUS63 KDTX 141311
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
911 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions in the 70s are expected today.

- The next chance of rain will come late Tuesday into Wednesday as
  low pressure approaches from the west. There will be a chance of
  thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

A mid level subsidence region has taken hold across Se Mi this
morning in the wake of the departing convection which impacted
northern Lower Mi and the thumb region prior to daybreak. This has
essentially cleared skies across most of the forecast area. Low
pressure and an associated cold front over central Lower Mi will sink
southward by afternoon. This cold front is forecast to hold across
Se Mi well into the afternoon. Building high pressure across the
northern lakes will then drive the Lake Huron marine layer from the
thumb region southward across the forecast area during the course of
the evening, causing some locals to experience a rapid late day drop
in temps. The 12Z DTX sounding and recent SPC meso analysis confirm
steep mid level lapse rates overhead. These lapse rates and a dry
low level airmass will result in a very warm afternoon as daytime
heating supports a deep mixed layer. In fact the, degree of low
level warm air that holds across the south may push daytime highs
over 80 in a few locals. Most of the forecast area will see highs
well into the 70s, except the thumb region where Lake Huron will
hold temps several degrees cooler. The elevated mixed layer that
advected overhead this morning will keep very warm temps around 850mb
over Se Mi through most of the day. This will provide a strong cap
which will inhibit convection despite the presence of numerous
surface boundaries. A forecast update was issued to reduce morning
cloud cover and nudge forecast daytime temps up a few degrees.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 551 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

AVIATION...

Weak low pressure and a surface cold front migrate across the
airspace today, but limited column moisture and a deep layer of
static stability ensure a dry frontal passage. Intervals of mid-
cloud this morning are the result of elevated convection over
northern Michigan, and will quickly exit east in the next several
hours along with the thunderstorm complex. Additional cloud later today
comes from transient mid-level moisture and diurnal cumulus, with
greatest coverage along and ahead of the front. As mixing ramps up
this morning, gusts increase up to 25 knots. SW winds at issuance
veer NW by this afternoon following the fropa, with additional
veering overnight as high pressure builds in while winds undergo a
calming trend below 5 knots by Monday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  None.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

DISCUSSION...

A fast moving shortwave will race past the region early this morning
with isolated to scattered showers (and possibly a thunderstorm)
clipping the northern portions of the forecast area mainly before
sunrise. This wave is moving faster than model depictions in general
so any convection re-firing this afternoon along attending surface
trough should be off to the south and east of the area. Will adjust
forecast to remove all/most precipitation chances during this later
day period. Winds will be a bit gusty at times today and veer from
southwest to northwest with the passage of this trough. Even with
the passage of this trough, temperatures will still warm into the
70s over most of the area with just some locations over the Thumb
stalling in the mid/upper 60s.

High pressure at the surface will expand southeast into the area
tonight into Monday night before being shunted off to the east and
northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night as the next significant low
pressure system spins up over the central plains. Temperatures will
remain mild (mid/upper 60s to around 70 for highs) given plentiful
sunshine on Monday. Leading moisture/precipitation within warm air
advection regime in advance of this plains cyclone will advance into
the area on Tuesday with progressively better rain chances into the
afternoon/evening hours.

The most widespread shower/thunderstorm activity associated with
this system will come Tuesday night into Wednesday as the system
occludes and begins to fill as it shifts east into the Great Lakes.
Will maintain the 80-100 pops during this time frame as elevated
warm front first lifts north-northeast into the area Tuesday night
and then the cold front wraps east into the area as the low pressure
center tracks into northern lower MI. Instability will be lacking
Tuesday night so thunderstorm activity should be minimal. The
picture is a bit less clear into Wednesday as a wedge of modest
instability works into/near parts of the forecast area in advance of
this low/cold front. So, if there is a window of strong thunderstorm
potential, it would come on Wednesday afternoon (depending on the
timing of the system).

A general cooling trend becomes established in the wake of this
system as a large upper low over southwest/south central Canada
shears east into the northern Great Lakes/southeast Canada which
leads to the development of a large (but relatively low amplitude)
upper trough over the northern tier of states. Temperatures in the
50s to around 60 Thursday will settle back into the upper 40s to
lower 50s into next weekend. Any precipitation during this cooler
regime will be limited to widely scattered showers which will be
largely diurnally driven.

MARINE...

Fast moving low pressure will slide through northern Lower Michigan
this morning, triggering showers and possible thunderstorms. Wind
speeds are expected to generally top out around 20 knots. The
nearshore waters of Lake Erie look to be most susceptible to reach
wind gusts to 25 knots for a short period on Sunday, but there is a
lot of warm air streaming in which will lead to stable low level
profiles over the water.

Broad surface high pressure in place to start the work week will
provide light winds on Monday, with easterly winds increasing on
Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure system moving into the the
Central Great Lakes on Wednesday. A period of easterly gales is
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, with northern half of Lake
Huron having the best shot. This system will also bring widespread
showers and possible thunderstorms.

HYDROLOGY...

A warm front will lift into the region late Tuesday into Tuesday
night in advance of a strong low pressure over the midwest. Showers
and a few thunderstorms will be possible along this front with the
greatest coverage occurring Tuesday night. Total rainfall during
this time frame is forecast to average between one quarter and one
third of an inch in many location. Additional rainfall is expected
on Wednesday as the aforementioned low pressure tracks into the
central Great Lakes and a cold front pivots east through the area.
No notable flooding is expected at this time although minor flooding
in prone urban and poor drainage areas will be possible, especially
if thunderstorm activity is able to develop on Wednesday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....DG


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