434
FNUS73 KDTX 020912
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Lapeer Oaks...MIDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
512 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Light northerly winds eventually veer toward the
southeast by this afternoon as high pressure cross the Great lakes.
Showers arrive tonight and expand in coverage Friday. Some storms
are also possible, especially Friday afternoon/evening ahead of a
cold front. Minimum RHs jump from the lower 40s today to lower 60s
Friday with prevailing wind speeds below 15 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Fair (MAX...269).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........23  26  28  31  43  44
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............63  65  67  67  68  68
RH..............52  49  47  46  45  46
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   6   6   6   6   6
EYE LVL WND GST.7   8   10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.2
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISPER....204 230 291 301 310 291

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent)becoming partly
                    cloudy (45-55 percent)becoming mostly cloudy
                    (55-65 percent). Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...45).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........52     50     53     62     61     64
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............66     61     56     55     55     55
RH..............48     55     62     69     72     72
EYE LVL WND DIR.E      E      E      SE     SE     SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.6      7      6      6      6      6
EYE LVL WND GST.10     13     11     13     13     13
MIX HGT (KFT)...2500   800    500    400    400    400
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3      3      3      3
SMOKE DISPER....277    99     56     54     52     65

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Rain showers likely in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds around 6 mph...becoming west
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 14 mph...becoming northwest 14 to
                    15 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Good (MAX...374).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........64        70        79        89
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TEMP............55        61        71        73
RH..............74        73        63        60
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 6      SE 6      S 6       SW 7
EYE LEVEL WIND..11        10        12        13
MIX HGT (FT)....400       800       2100      2800
HAINES INDEX....3         3         3         3
SMOKE DISPER....41        94        255       395

$$
Forecaster...Arnold
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412953.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov