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000
FXUS63 KDVN 170055
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
755 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather event ongoing through this evening. All hazards are
  possible.

- Another round of showers Thursday, with windy and cooling
  conditions into the weekend. Frost or freeze possible Friday
  and Saturday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A fragmented line of storms near and just east of the immediate
Mississippi River Valley continues on the remnants of what was
the dryline. The main threats are wind surges at the leading
edge of any convective features from a combination of
precipitation loading and well-organized storm structures (due
to effective shear of around 60 kt). Mid-level lapse rates have
been chewed up from earlier, so CAPE profiles have likely
narrowed some resulting in somewhat less deep convection. Still
ample moisture, low-level kinematics, and 50-100 J/kg of low-
level CAPE for at least some tornado threat where any
mesovortexgenesis can occur in well-aligned storm segments to
the low-level shear. This tornado threat is likely to very
gradually ease.

The overall severe threat should creep eastward through
~9:30-11 PM. There is potential for redeveloping isolated storms
even behind this axis overnight as forcing for ascent from the
main upper low and ahead of the surface cold front shifts
eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...Meso Discussion on Severe Risk...

Latest surface analysis depicted a warm front stretching from
central Nebraska southeastward into northern Missouri and south
central Illinois, with a strong cold front across central Kansas and
Oklahoma. This was all associated with a 992 hPa surface low over
central Nebraska. Per mesoanalysis, a strong 50-60 kt LLJ was also
just ahead of this surface low, and was responsible for ongoing
storm development across western Iowa and northwest Missouri this
morning. These aforementioned features will be the driver of our
weather through Wednesday morning.

Regarding the latest forecast information, overall things remain on
track from the previous discussion. Latest short-term CAMs remain in
good agreement in bringing in the aforementioned storms across
southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri into our area beginning after
noon. Given extremely favorable parameters (1. Advecting dew points
in the 50s/60s; 2. Strong LLJ ~50-60 kts; 3. Robust lift throughout
the vertical of the atmosphere w/ the LLJ and jet exit aloft; 4.
subsequent vertical shear with the presence of the jets; 5.
Favorable mid-level lapse rates > 7 C/km supporting storm growth),
confidence is high that these storms will be severe as they traverse
the area.

Overall timing remains consistent from the previous AFD. The initial
band of storms more associated with the warm front will track NE
across the area between 1 PM and 5 PM. A secondary line of storms
associated with the initial (Pacific) cold front is expected to
develop in central IA in the late afternoon. This line of storms
will track across the area between 5 and 9 PM and may be stronger
than the first. So, it should be noted that there may be a brief
lull for any one location after the first wave and more, possibly
stronger, storms will move through in the commute time into mid
evening.

The SPC maintains much of the CWA in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out
of 5) area; with a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for the E and NE
parts of the CWA including Freeport, Sterling, and Princeton, IL.
All severe hazards including large hail and tornadoes (especially
with any long-lived supercells), and damaging winds will all be
possible. The long-lived supercell potential proxy of updraft
helicity swaths is most pronounced across eastern Iowa as the
northern portion of the warm sector impinges.

Heading into late tonight into Wednesday morning, will make note of
a potential for a renewed round of storms and thunderstorms mainly
east of the Mississippi River in our far northwest Illinois counties.
NAMnest remains the biggest advocate of the threat, which is likely
due to the parent NAM showing strong CVA associated with the passing
shortwave aloft in that area. Like the mid shift, will maintain this
event as low confidence. However, should storms develop, they could
bring a wind and low tornado threat.

...Winds...

Given an extremely tight pressure gradient in place across the area
with the strengthening surface low to the west, and the very strong
50-60 kt LLJ around the 925-850 hPa level, expecting southeast winds
sustained around 20 to 30 MPH. Gusts may approach 40 to 45 MPH as
times, especially in east central Iowa which will be in the tightest
portion of the pressure gradient. However, given the complex nature
of messaging today with the incoming severe potentially inducing
stronger winds, we`ve opted to follow the mid shift in holding on an
advisory.

...Rainfall...

Robust 1.25-1.75" PWAT feed will be in place across the area ahead
of the cold front, ensuring efficient rainfall processes with storms
as they traverse the area. Latest HREF probs are on the lower end
with regards to storms producing > 1.00"/hr rainfall (30-40%) likely
due to the faster movement of storms. Thankfully, latest soil
moisture profile analysis shows dry to near normal conditions are in
place. This, combined with the greenup we`ve been experiencing over
the last several days and lowering river levels will allow for a
lower risk of hydrophobic conditions and soils being able to more
easily absorb heavier rains, thus a lower flash flood risk. That
being said, more susceptible areas like urban areas and those with
poor drainage will see issues with ponding of water.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday...Upper low storm system will look to fill and roll
northeastward acrs WI. In its wake, lingering mid level cool pool
will help induce sctrd to isolated showers and even a few storms
mainly north of I-80. Graupel will be possible out of a more
vigorous shower/storm. Other breezy and cooler, with westerly sfc
winds gusting up to 35 MPH. Deeper mixing making the most out
cooling thicknesses with highs in the low to mid 60s, even some
upper 60s south.

Thursday and Friday...Broad low amplitude cyclonic flow to usher
acrs another wave with sfc reflection inverted trof on Thursday.
Looking at fcst soundings and stout inversion rooted around the H8
MB level, it look`s like an elevated shower day coming acrs the
CWA, almost like a cold season system. But convergent and robust 35
to 45 KT LLJ flow will advect a plume of 100-900+ mid layer MUCAPEs
probably enough to fuel some elevated thunder and small hail if we
get the currently indicated 30-50 KT storm layer shear. 0.20 to a
half inch of rainfall possible Thu looking at elevated PWAT feed and
extent of lift. Sfc layer high temps held down mainly in the 50s
Thu. Thu night the first in a series of seasonably cool nights. With
cloud clear off and possible sfc wind decouple to or under 5 KTs,
there may be some patchy frost in the northwest. We are now
susceptible to frost and freeze with the recent vegetation growth
spurt/budding out, thus some headlines may eventually have to be
issued...if not Thursday night, Friday and Saturday nights looking
cold prone. Northwest high plains to mid MS RVR Valley strong sfc
ridging adjusts acrs the area, highs only in the 50s Friday. Friday
night with cloud thinning especially acrs the northern 2/3`s of the
CWA, low temps look to bee in the low to mid 30s with more frost
potential. Cold H85 MB ridge rule supports lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s and more of a freeze threat.

Saturday and Sunday...Saturday a breezy and coolish day despite
later April insolation with -3 to -6 H85 MB pool overhead...highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s for most of the area. Continued LLVL
ridging and sfc wind drop off could make Sat night the coolest of
the stretch with widespread upper 20s to low 30s possible, as well
as some mid 20s in cold air drainage locations. Sunday moderation
with temps back in the upper 50s to around 60.

Early next week...Continued moderating temps ahead of a clipper-type
wave originating out out of B.C. Canada, and ensemble timing brings
this system acrs the Midwest with associated showers for the
local fcst area mainly Monday night. Highs in the 60s next
Tuesday.   ..12..

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Showers and storms will continue to remain in the vicinity of
KMLI/KBRL/KDBQ over the next 2 hours, with potential for drops
to IFR/LIFR conditions. Some of these storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and hail as they pass. Expect these
storms to exit the area by 17.02z, with VFR conditions through
the night with continued breezy winds out of the south to
southwest. By Wednesday morning, a passing upper level low will
bring MVFR ceilings across the area. These ceilings will persist
for much of the remainder of the TAF period, with low potential
for a return to VFR conditions by 18.00z. Winds will veer to the
west, and will gust around 25-30 kts for much of the daytime
Wednesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Friedlein
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Speck