572
FXUS63 KEAX 011733
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...Updated 18Z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to isolated severe storms possible this evening
  into tonight with hail the main threat.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue into Thursday with flash
  and river flooding a concern.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The cold front that had brought storms to the area last night has
pushed south of the CWA. This front will become stationary
south of the area this morning. This will keep the bulk of the
area dry during the morning hours. However, as we move into the
afternoon hours the front will start to slowly lift north across
central Missouri and central Kansas. A LLJ will develop west of
the area across eastern Kansas and models depict subtle
shortwaves aloft that may aid development. This may bring storms
into the western and northwestern CWA this afternoon. Highs
will range in the 70s today. However, as we move into this
evening the LLJ will strengthen and the nose will focus on the
western CWA. This will allow storm coverage and intensity to
increase. AS such a few of these storms may be strong to
isolated severe with threat being the main threat as these
storms will be elevated in nature north of the surface front.
With the LLJ nosing into the area through the overnight showers
and thunderstorms are expected to persist this will bring the
potential for heavy and prolonged rain as PWATs are expected to
range between 1.25"-1.50" which may lead to flash and river
flooding. Storms will continue through Thursday morning as the
LLJ never really weakens. heavy rain will continue to be a
concern as PWATs will further increase to 1.50"-1.75". As we
move into Thursday afternoon, the LLJ does weaken however, a
compact mid-level shortwave will move through the area with a
surface cold front. This will spawn additional convection on
Thursday afternoon however, the severe threat is conditional. If
we can clear out and get some diurnal heating which seems in
doubt at this point, a few of these storms could be strong with
marginally severe hail and gusty winds the main threats. The
cold front will finally push through the area by Thursday
evening with just light showers in it`s wake Thursday night. By
the end of the event widespread 1.50"-3.00" of rain is expected
with locally higher amounts possible. Again this will make
flooding and river flooding a concern.

A surface ridge of high pressure looks to build into the area on
Friday finally drying conditions out with seasonable highs in the
low to mid 70s. The dry period will be short-lived however, as a
upper level trough will move from the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest late Friday night into Saturday. This will force a cold
front through the area bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Fortunately, this system should be
progressive enough not to cause much issue however, depend what
occurs over the next two days, any additional precipitation may not
be welcome. This round of storms will exit the area Saturday morning
with surface high pressure building back into the area. Highs
Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure looks
to remain in control through most of Sunday however, late Sunday
into Sunday night a low amplitude, quick moving shortwave is
expected to eject out from the southwestern CONUS into the local
region. This will bring yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms, again fortunately, moisture will be meager with this
system. Showers associated with this feature will exit the area
early Monday. However, another more potent system is on it`s heels
for Monday night in the form of a negatively tilted trough. Both the
GFS and EC are advertising this feature as on the 00Z runs so this
will have to be monitored going forward as this would pose a
significant severe threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions prevail early on in the TAF pd with MVFR
conditions expected after midnight due to showers and storms.
Increased chances for lower ceilings are north of most
terminals overnight. Ceilings are expected to bounce back to VFR
during the early morning hours on Thursday before more showers
and storms return ceilings to MVFR later Thursday morning. Winds
overnight will be out of the SSE around 10-15 kts, gusting to
20 kts followed be a shift to the SSW Thursday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hayes/Krull