Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211723
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures today should range from the lower 50s over
  northeast MO to as warm as the upper 60s south/southwest of
  Kansas City.

- Cold front moves through tomorrow morning and afternoon,
  bringing chances for some showers.

- Much cooler for Friday night into Saturday.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely Sunday into
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

The current mid to upper level synoptic weather pattern across North
America is largely defined by ridging over the western CONUS with
longwave troughing over the Great Lakes into New England. Further to
the south, a shortwave trough is moving across northwestern
Mexico and into Texas. At the surface, the cold front that moved
through the region yesterday has stalled out to our south over
the Ozarks near the MO/AR border. This front should begin
lifting northward toward the region this afternoon and evening
as a warm front as the aforementioned shortwave trough over NW
Mexico lifts northeastward into Texas. With the influence of the
upper trough to our northeast and the lifting warm front to our
southwest, a large temperature gradient should set up this
afternoon. After a chilly start to the day, temperatures should
warm this afternoon into the the upper 60s across southern
portions of our forecast area and the low to mid 60s over the KC
metro, but as chilly as the lower 50s over NE Missouri. Breezy
easterly winds with gusts up to 25 mph are likely from around 7
am through noon today before relaxing. We should get some decent
moisture return as well into southern portions of the region,
with dewpoints rising from the teens at the present moment to
the as high as the lower 40s by this evening across the
Pleasanton KS/Butler MO area. Overnight lows tonight should be
much warmer, with all locations likely to remain above freezing.

Tomorrow morning, a surface low is progged move from northern
Nebraska into southern Iowa in association with a quick moving
mid to upper level disturbance moving across the north central
US. This should send a cold front through the region from
northwest to southeast tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
or two will be possible along and slightly ahead of the front,
especially for northeastern MO into central MO, but convection
allowing model guidance is not particularly bullish on these
chances at this time. Breezy northerly winds and colder air
moves in behind the front, with another widespread hard freeze
likely for much of the region Friday night into Saturday
morning. Chilly temperatures should hang around into Saturday
afternoon with highs currently forecast to range from the upper
40s to mid 50s.

The active weather pattern continues into the weekend, as models
suggest a large, high amplitude mid to upper level trough moving
into the western CONUS on Saturday and eventually into the Plains on
Sunday with a surface low developing east of the Rockies and
approaching the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The
overall speed of the main upper trough and associated short wave
perturbations will largely impact what kind of weather we
receive. As of now, it appears that the better severe weather
threat would reside well to the west and southwest of our region
on Sunday afternoon and evening, as SPC has highlighted portions
of south central KS into western OK and northwestern TX within a
15% severe weather probability area. However, a strong low level
jet looks to develop over our area Sunday evening into Sunday
night, and with strong forcing for ascent and some decent
moisture return, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely. By around 7 am Monday morning, model guidance suggests
the surface low will be centered somewhere in the vicinity of
northeastern KS with a warm front draped to the east near the
MO/IA border and the cold front extending southward through east
central Kansas. Strong southerly winds are likely across the
warm sector on Monday with sustained winds on the order of 25
mph and gusts to 35 mph. Aloft, a very strong south
southwesterly oriented mid level jet looks to overspread the
region, with 500 mb wind speeds up to 90-100 knots. We could
have a period of modest instability paired with very strong deep
layer shear capable of producing some well organized updrafts
and some strong to severe storms Monday afternoon. Showers and
storms will exit the region to the east as the cold front passes
sometime on Monday afternoon and evening. Total rainfall
amounts have trended down from this time yesterday, with
generally around 0.5" to 0.75" of rainfall forecast to fall
across the area between Sunday and Monday.

Colder temperatures come behind the front on Monday
afternoon/evening, with slight chances for rain lingering into
Monday night and Tuesday morning (and perhaps a slight chance
for some light wintry precipitation on Tuesday morning over far
NW Missouri, but no accumulation is expected at this time).
Chilly and breezy conditions continue into Tuesday, with
temperatures projected to moderate by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

East winds will continue around 10 kt this afternoon with
occasional gusts to 20 kt, with SCT/BKN CIGs around 5-6 kft this
afternoon before dissipating this evening. Winds will diminish
overnight as they veer gradually to the south and then will veer
quickly Friday morning as a cold front moves through the
region, becoming northwesterly and gusty by midday. Cloud cover
will increase late tonight with bases lowering quickly as the
front moves through on Friday. MVFR CIGs appear likely (>70
percent chance) for a few hours late in the morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...CMS


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