Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 271929
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
129 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend. Windy
conditions will return for the weekend starting on Friday. Areas
of blowing dust will be likely on Sunday. A storm system will pass
through the region on Monday which will bring a chance of rain for
western regions, but the eastern regions will remain mostly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Currently cooler weather and light winds remain as the area is
under a post frontal airmass, with north-westerly winds allowing
for cold air advection (CAA). A ridge will quickly build in on
Thursday which will shift winds south-westerly and cause warm air
advection (WAA). This WAA will warm temperatures significantly and
highs will be in the low 80s Thursday through the weekend.
Dewpoints will remain very low at around 10-15F, but winds will
remain breezy until Friday, so fire weather conditions will remain
mild.

On Friday, an upper level trough will arrive just off the
coast of California, which will begin to influence the region in
the form of small shortwaves. Positive Vorticity Advection
(PVA)from these shortwaves will allow for lee cyclogenesis off
the Rocky Mountains in south eastern Colorado. The weak surface
low that will form in response will tighten pressure gradients and
increase wind speeds in the region. Winds will be between
25-30kts with gusts of +40kts for Friday, but will be just short
of advisory criteria. Winds will relax a bit on Saturday as the
surface low moves further away. On Sunday, the axis of the trough
will be over south-eastern California and western Arizona which
will trigger another round of cyclogenesis off the Rocky
Mountains. This surface low will be stronger than the former one
and will tighten pressure gradients for the region. Winds will be
between 30-35kts with gusts of 45-50kts, reaching advisory
criteria, for Sunday with areas of blowing dust. The spread
between the NBM`s 75th and 25th percentiles for these wind events
from Friday through Sunday is quite low (between 5-8kts for
sustained winds and 7-10kts for gusts) so confidence is high.

The trough will continue to move east next week and will
continue to affect the region. An associated Pacific front will
arrive on Monday which will cool temperatures ~10F. CAA from
northwesterly flow will keep temperatures cooler for much of next
week. Precipitation chances will accompany the front, but eastern
regions will remain too dry for any significant rainfall.
Snowfall will be possible for elevations higher than 7000ft, but
accumulations will be negligible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC becoming FEW-
SCT250 after 12Z. Winds generally from the WNW at 10-15 knots
with gust 20-25 knots, becoming generally light after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Low fire weather concerns for today and tomorrow. Dry conditions
are expected with RH values between 10-15% for much of the
lowlands and 25-30% for higher elevations. Daytime temperatures
will continue to warm with Thursday being 10-15F warmer than
Wednesday. Winds will be breezy at 10-15mph with gusts of up to
20mph. On Friday, fire concerns will become critical as winds
will increase due to a surface low off of Colorado (25-30mph with
gusts of 40mph). Southwesterly flow will cause temperatures to
remain warm (low 80s). RH values will be low across the region(~10%
and ~20% for higher elevations). Most moisture remaining in fuels
will dissipate by the weekend due to warmer temperatures and
winds. Saturday and Sunday will have slightly lower fire
conditions due to increasing RH values. A storm system will arrive
early next week which will increase RH values and cool
temperatures by ~10F. A chance of rain will accompany this storm
system. Fire weather concerns will diminish as a result.
Ventillation rates will range from good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  44  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            37  73  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               39  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               34  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               24  49  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    37  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              34  65  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   35  75  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                34  74  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       43  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                32  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             37  81  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               39  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   39  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             37  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           42  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            34  73  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    34  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 38  76  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                35  73  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  29  64  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                27  60  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 27  60  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  31  66  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                35  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                32  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             28  65  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   32  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    34  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               34  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  35  68  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   34  77  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  35  76  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           37  77  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               38  71  48  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...Ribail/Laney


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