Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271929
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
129 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend. Windy
conditions will return for the weekend starting on Friday. Areas
of blowing dust will be likely on Sunday. A storm system will pass
through the region on Monday which will bring a chance of rain for
western regions, but the eastern regions will remain mostly dry.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Currently cooler weather and light winds remain as the area is
under a post frontal airmass, with north-westerly winds allowing
for cold air advection (CAA). A ridge will quickly build in on
Thursday which will shift winds south-westerly and cause warm air
advection (WAA). This WAA will warm temperatures significantly and
highs will be in the low 80s Thursday through the weekend.
Dewpoints will remain very low at around 10-15F, but winds will
remain breezy until Friday, so fire weather conditions will remain
mild.
On Friday, an upper level trough will arrive just off the
coast of California, which will begin to influence the region in
the form of small shortwaves. Positive Vorticity Advection
(PVA)from these shortwaves will allow for lee cyclogenesis off
the Rocky Mountains in south eastern Colorado. The weak surface
low that will form in response will tighten pressure gradients and
increase wind speeds in the region. Winds will be between
25-30kts with gusts of +40kts for Friday, but will be just short
of advisory criteria. Winds will relax a bit on Saturday as the
surface low moves further away. On Sunday, the axis of the trough
will be over south-eastern California and western Arizona which
will trigger another round of cyclogenesis off the Rocky
Mountains. This surface low will be stronger than the former one
and will tighten pressure gradients for the region. Winds will be
between 30-35kts with gusts of 45-50kts, reaching advisory
criteria, for Sunday with areas of blowing dust. The spread
between the NBM`s 75th and 25th percentiles for these wind events
from Friday through Sunday is quite low (between 5-8kts for
sustained winds and 7-10kts for gusts) so confidence is high.
The trough will continue to move east next week and will
continue to affect the region. An associated Pacific front will
arrive on Monday which will cool temperatures ~10F. CAA from
northwesterly flow will keep temperatures cooler for much of next
week. Precipitation chances will accompany the front, but eastern
regions will remain too dry for any significant rainfall.
Snowfall will be possible for elevations higher than 7000ft, but
accumulations will be negligible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC becoming FEW-
SCT250 after 12Z. Winds generally from the WNW at 10-15 knots
with gust 20-25 knots, becoming generally light after 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Low fire weather concerns for today and tomorrow. Dry conditions
are expected with RH values between 10-15% for much of the
lowlands and 25-30% for higher elevations. Daytime temperatures
will continue to warm with Thursday being 10-15F warmer than
Wednesday. Winds will be breezy at 10-15mph with gusts of up to
20mph. On Friday, fire concerns will become critical as winds
will increase due to a surface low off of Colorado (25-30mph with
gusts of 40mph). Southwesterly flow will cause temperatures to
remain warm (low 80s). RH values will be low across the region(~10%
and ~20% for higher elevations). Most moisture remaining in fuels
will dissipate by the weekend due to warmer temperatures and
winds. Saturday and Sunday will have slightly lower fire
conditions due to increasing RH values. A storm system will arrive
early next week which will increase RH values and cool
temperatures by ~10F. A chance of rain will accompany this storm
system. Fire weather concerns will diminish as a result.
Ventillation rates will range from good to excellent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 44 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 37 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 39 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 34 72 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 24 49 38 52 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 37 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 34 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 35 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 34 74 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 43 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 32 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 37 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 39 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 39 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 37 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 42 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 34 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 34 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 38 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 35 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 29 64 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 27 60 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 27 60 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 31 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 35 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 32 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 65 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 32 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 34 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 34 67 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 35 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 34 77 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 35 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 37 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 38 71 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...Ribail/Laney