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000
FXUS64 KEWX 120725
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Weak ridging aloft will be in place today and flatten to more of
zonal flow on Saturday. Dry conditions will prevail in the short
term with initially thin high clouds streaming through the area
today, thickening tonight. At the surface, surface high pressure
will be in place to the east with lee-side troughing over eastern
New Mexico and Colorado taking place today. This will result in an
increase in south to southeast flow late morning through the
afternoon, becoming breezy along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards
Plateau. Low level moisture modification will be delayed until
tonight, and as a result fire weather is of concern today out west
(see Fire Weather discussion below). High temperatures today are
forecast to range from the low 80s from the Coastal Plains into the
Hill Country, and mid to upper 80s along the Rio Grande.

Dew points are forecast to modify tonight into Saturday morning.
Some low level stratus is possible along the escarpment/I-35
corridor early Saturday morning, but quickly scattering out by
midday. High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be a couple of
degrees higher in some spots than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The long term forecast across South-Central Texas will be mainly
characterized by warming temperatures and an uptick in humidity
levels. A west-southwesterly flow will trend aloft while light to
moderate south-southeasterly winds maintain at the surface and
across the lower levels of the atmosphere with high pressure
situated to the east. The southerly flow will become breeziest on
Monday as the pressure gradient tightens thanks to a developing
surface low off the Rockies in advance of a parent upper level
system ejecting northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the
Central Plains. A Pacific front/dryline boundary likely will be
dragged eastward across at least portions of our region from
overnight Monday night through Tuesday morning. This could help
spark a low end chance for rain or convection but with the storm
track so far north, forcing looks to be a limiting factor with
eroding the capping inversion. Wouldn`t be surprised of some low
topped showers or drizzle with moisture trapped underneath the
capping inversion. Elevated to near critical fire weather returns
out west on Tuesday behind the front/dryline given the westerly
winds and lower humidity. Humidity creeps back upwards during
Tuesday night as the dryline/boundary retreats.

The next change in the weather pattern looks to arrive late this
week and into the following weekend. While differences do exist
within the medium range guidance, they do suggest the potential
approach of a cold front that helps kick off a wetter and more
active stretch across South-Central Texas. Pending the front`s
overall strength and final position, some cooler than average
temperatures could eventually move into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period with high clouds streaming
through the region. Calm to variable winds less than 5 KT overnight
into early Friday morning for most areas, with exception of Rio
Grande where SE wind around 5-10 KT will prevail. Winds speeds
gradually increase after 15Z out of the SE, and in the afternoon
become 10-15 KT with gusts to around 20 KT most areas and 15-20 KT
with gusts to around 30 KT along the Rio Grande.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Gusty southeast winds will return to portions of the Rio Grande and
southern Edwards Plateau today. HREF probabilities of Red Flag
weather conditions (sustained wind speeds 15-20 mph or greater
occurring with RH values of 20% or less) range from 70-100% this
afternoon along the Rio Grande. This, combined with TICC forecast
Fuel Dryness maps in the Dry to Extremely Dry categories and forecast
Fire Danger maps in the High to Extreme categories, has necessitated
the need to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  56  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  57  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  57  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  57  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  56  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  56  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           83  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76