437
FXUS64 KEWX 061125
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
625 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Light streamer showers are seen near and south of San Antonio early
this morning. This activity should spread north into Central TX
later this morning with a small chance of one or two breaking the
cap this afternoon. PWat values should hover near or above 1.5
inches and there should be plenty of low level wind to support the
roll cloud pattern in the lower portion of the conveyor belt of the
upper low moving into the central/northern Plains states. The mostly
cloudy day should help hold temperatures close to seasonal values,
but above normal temperatures are expected near the Rio Grande where
some downsloping plateau air mixes into the area. The transition to
more stable air is more complete by this evening as a more dry zonal
pattern develops over TX. The surface pressure gradient should
weaken tonight and this could allow for a more stable fog pattern
which could become dense in areas where good rains fell. Tuesday,
the weaker pressure gradient and an eastward mixing of the dry-line
will bring much more sunshine into the area and a significant uptick
in daytime heating. The San Antonio area should get the first taste
of mid 90s heat so far this year, but lower maxes are still expected
over the rain-soaked soils around Austin. High RH values Tuesday
could send the Heat Index soaring, and a few areas could see near
advisory level values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mid and upper level high pressure off the coast of the western U.S.
along with low pressure over the Intermountain West will yield a Rex
block pattern as we head into the middle portion of this week. Across
our region, west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist in the mid
and upper levels of the atmosphere. In the lower levels, the thermal
ridge remains strong and this combined with warm air off the Mexican
plateau will result in continued above normal temperatures on
Wednesday. Most areas will see highs in the 90s along with humid
conditions. Temperatures will be hotter (100-105) across the Rio
Grande plains as the dryline mixes eastward during the afternoon
hours. We will need to monitor areas along and east of I-35 for a few
spots briefly approaching Heat Advisory levels with the heat index
near 108 degrees. Some convergence along the dryline and perhaps some
weak upper support may allow for some afternoon convection to
develop over the Hill Country into north Texas. For now, rain chances
appear favored to our north, so we will keep the forecast dry. On
Thursday, a cold front will move southward through the region, with
the GFS trending a little stronger with the cooler air behind this
front. The most notable cooling will occur across the Hill Country
and I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward. Farther west into the
Rio Grande plains, another round of hot temperatures in the 100-105
degree range will remain in the forecast. We could see a few showers
or storms develop behind along and behind the front and will keep a
low chance for precipitation in the forecast for the Hill Country and
nearby I-35 corridor. The cooling trend continues for Friday and
Saturday along with a low chance for showers and storms initially
confined to the Rio Grande on Friday. An upper level jet moves across
north Texas on Saturday into Sunday and this may help spread low
rain chances farther east into the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and
coastal plains. Highs for Friday through the upcoming weekend will
generally range from the upper 70s to upper 80s along with lows in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Weak shower echoes can be seen on radar to the distant east of the
I-35 sites, and there will probably be some more rounds after
daybreak as mixing begins to increase Mostly IFR CIGs are expected
before 15Z with steady improvement to VFR expected by 20-22Z. Not to
much of the westerly winds aloft are expected to impact the marine
low levels, so we should see the cigs lower into MVFR before midnight
and probably to lower levels than tonight as the low level winds are
expected to be lighter. VSBYs could drop below 1 mile overnight as
many areas still have rain soaked soils.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  91  72  92 /  20  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  92  72  92 /  10  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  89  71  90 /  10  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           74 100  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  90  71  90 /  20  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  94  71  98 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  92  71  92 /  10  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  90  73  91 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  93  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73  94  73  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18