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000
FXUS62 KFFC 241053
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
653 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

 - Slight chance of light showers across portions of Central GA
   this afternoon and again S of Columbus area on Thursday
   associated with a weak front.

A weak shortwave trough will move across the E Great Lakes and OH
Valley region this morning. At the surface, a very weak cold front
will sink S into the area today. Isolated showers may develop this
afternoon along and just ahead of the front as it continues to sink S
across Central GA. Have continued to include very light QPF amounts
in that area along with 15% PoPs. Instability and dynamic support
continue to look meager. It appears there will be a small amount of
CAPE around cloud level (4-6kt) with a narrow dry layer just above.
Confidence is low that much in the way of measurable rainfall will be
realized. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper
60s across the NE mountains to near 80 across the S. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid 40s across the extreme NE to the
upper 50s S and SE of Macon. Some patchy fog is possible around the
Columbus area.

The front will stall over the extreme S tonight and begin to lift
back N as a warm front on Thursday. There may be a few more showers
along this boundary Thursday afternoon across the extreme SW corner
of the County Warning Area, but QPF values are again very low. High
temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 70s in the extreme
NE to the mid 80s in the extreme SE.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Highlights:

-The next opportunity for any appreciable rainfall now holds off
until early next week.

-Slightly above normal temperatures (excluding far NE GA) through
the period.

At the start of the long term period (Thursday night) a frontal
boundary will be lifting back north as a warm front and while
guidance still largely keeps the forecast area dry would not be
surprised if some light rain showers and/or sprinkles occur in the
vicinity of the front in addition to increased cloud cover. A wedge
of high pressure is still slated to develop across the northeast on
Friday resulting in cooler conditions in Northeast GA. As noted in
the previous forecast discussion the past few model runs indicates
slower timing of the next two closed low systems that develop east of
the Rockies. Thus, any notable rainfall now looks to hold off until
the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Midlevel ridging shifts east covering
much of the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday resulting in the
return of southwesterly flow. At the surface, a wedge will become
more prominent across the northeast and southerly flow continues to
increase at the lowest levels. Gradual moisture return in the way of
increasing cloud cover can be expected through the weekend. Midlevel
ridging holds steady and becomes more amplified extending up the East
Coast through the weekend and into Monday. At the same time, the
second closed low system that develops east of the Rockies will
travel NNE towards the Great Lakes Region with the surface boundary
inching eastward potentially becoming stalled just to our west. The
current forecast has rain chances starting to increase across NW GA
Monday afternoon and persisting through Tuesday. Details will
continue to become defined over the next several days.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the long term period
for much of Central Georgia. Forecast highs will generally be in the
70s and 80s potentially reaching the upper 80s by early next week.
Cooler temperatures can be expected for areas under the influence of
the CAD wedge (across parts of North GA) particularly on Friday with
forecast highs in the 50s/60s. Forecast lows will range from the 50s
to low 60s through the period.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast remains basically unchanged, with VFR conditions expected
to continue. A very weak frontal boundary will sink S through the
area today, bringing the possibility of isolated light showers,
particularly from the S portion of the Atlanta metro area into
central GA. There is uncertainty whether these showers will
materialize, as there will be minimal dynamic or thermodynamic
support. Some small amount of CAPE will exist around 5kft, but there
may also be a shallow dry layer right above the moisture and lift.
Have opted for PROB30 -SHRA at ATL and FTY with VCSH at PDK, RYY, and
AHN. Cigs should stay above 3kft. Winds will be generally light SW
shifting to NW upon boundary passage, with a few gusts to near 20 kts
possible in the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium for shower development, high on all other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  78  56  74 /   0   0  10  10
Atlanta         54  79  59  76 /   0   0  10  10
Blairsville     44  74  52  67 /   0   0  10  20
Cartersville    47  79  57  77 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus        57  83  62  84 /   0  10   0  10
Gainesville     51  77  57  70 /   0   0  10  10
Macon           57  82  60  81 /   0   0  10  10
Rome            47  79  57  77 /   0   0  10  10
Peachtree City  52  81  59  79 /   0   0  10  10
Vidalia         59  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC