Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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827 FXUS65 KFGZ 060038 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 538 PM MST Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will cross the region this afternoon and evening bringing strong, gusty winds and scattered showers. Any wind or shower threat will come to an end late tonight. For the coming week, it will remain breezy and temperatures below seasonal averages as several dry weather disturbances cross the region. && .DISCUSSION...A strong low pressure system continued to move across the western states and Arizona Sunday afternoon. The main result has been strong southwest winds with numerous gusts between 50 to 60 mph with the strongest gust so far observed 62 mph at Two Guns along I-40. For the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening look for these strong winds to continue as the low slowly heads eastward across the area. In addition, strong upward motion associated with the low will draw in just enough moisture for a shower threat. The best chances will be toward the Utah border with slight chances extending as far south a the Mogollon Rim. Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts will generally less than 0.15 inches in locations where precipitation is observed. It`s not out of the question that the very highest elevations receive an inch or so of snow accumulation. Any wind and precipitation threat largely moves east of the state after midnight. Various high wind/red flag warnings and wind advisories remain in effect through mid evening. For Monday and the coming week...Dry and colder air behind the current system will result in the threat of subfreezing morning temperatures at elevations roughly above 6500 through Thursday or Friday. So if you have done some early planting or have other sensitive plants you probably want to offer them some protection. Also, hoses, probably best if you disconnect those for the next few days. Surface pressure gradients will weaken with the passing of the current system. However, a dry and weaker disturbance will approach and move across Arizona from Monday into Tuesday. The result will be west winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 mph on Monday afternoon increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 35 mph on Tuesday, especially from the Mogollon Rim northward. Starting Wednesday pressure gradients weaken further with more typical afternoon winds in the 10 to 25 mph range. Mainly dry disturbances will continue to brush Arizona through the week with both high and low temperatures remaining below seasonal averages through much of the period, perhaps warming to near normal by Friday or Saturday. && .AVIATION...Monday 06/00Z through Tuesday 07/00Z...Expect strong southwest winds 20-35 kt gusting 40-55 kts this evening, shifting to westerly and decreasing behind a cold front moving west to east across the area, reaching to New Mexico state line by around 06Z. Areas of -SHRA/-SHSN along and ahead of the front, bringing periods of MVFR ceilings/visibilities through around 06Z mainly from I-40 northward. Isolated MVFR conditions from blowing dust near KINW, KSJN, and KRQE will be possible due to the winds. VFR conditions after 06Z, with west winds 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts on Monday. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/00Z through Thursday 09/00Z...VFR conditions expected through the outlook period. West to southwest wind 15-25 kts Tuesday afternoon, gusting up to 35 kts mainly north of a KFLG-KSOW line. Northwest wind 10-15 kts gusting near 25 kts Wednesday. A large prescribed fire project could bring some smoke impacts around KFLG beginning Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Tuesday...Southwest winds gusting 45-60mph will slowly diminish this evening, with lighter west winds on Monday and Tuesday gusting 20-35mph. Red Flag conditions will continue into the early evening for portions of Apache County. Wednesday through Friday...Seasonably breezy conditions will continue through Friday, with dry conditions and temperatures a few degrees below normal. Min RH will range from 5-15 percent each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST /10 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ008. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ114. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...BAK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff