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000
FXUS64 KFWD 202302
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Sunday Night/

Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the region this
evening although the bulk of the heavier rainfall has now shifted
into Central Texas and the back edge of the precipitation is now
approaching our northwest counties. It`ll be a cool and rainy
evening with temperatures in the upper 40s and breezy northeast
winds. While a few rumbles of thunder will still continue north of
I-20 this evening, much of the remaining instability is now across
our central TX counties where a few strong storms could still
occur. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches have already
fallen with some localized flooding issues occurring. Otherwise,
rainfall rates will be heaviest with the stronger convection to
the south through the rest of the night. An upstream shortwave
trough is approaching the area at this time and will gradually
pass to the east with precipitation ending from northwest to
southeast after midnight. The heaviest rainfall amounts through
the rest of the evening will be across our south/southeast
counties. It`ll be a cool night with temperatures in the 40s by
early Sunday morning.

Clouds will linger into early Sunday morning before gradually
scattering out during the afternoon. High temperatures will top
out in the low to mid 60s with a continued north wind. Clear skies
and light winds Sunday night will allow temperatures to fall into
the low 40s with a few spots in outlying areas possibly falling
into the upper 30s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Expect a pleasant end to the weekend as the region finds itself on
the back end of a departing upper trough. Ridging will begin to
build in by Sunday night, with the surface high sliding overtop the
region Monday morning. Light winds and generally clear skies will
allow for efficient radiational cooling to take place, promoting
even cooler temperatures to start the workweek. Expect Monday
morning lows in the 40s region-wide, making for a slightly chilly
commute. The presence of upper level ridging and the return of
southerly surface winds will promote a dry and warming forecast
through early week.

By Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance will round the periphery of
the ridge, sending a weak cold front south toward the Red River
Valley. The front looks to stall somewhere between the Red River
and north of I-20, but the exact location remains uncertain as
59% of total ensemble members shows the front a bit north of the
OUN/FWD CWA border and the rest a bit south. This uncertainty
correlates to the northward retreat of rain chances late Tuesday
into Wednesday in the most recent NBM guidance as compared to the
previous forecast. The exact location of the stalled boundary and
its attendant midweek rain chances will become clearer in the
coming days as more high-res guidance grabs hold of this time
period.

Meanwhile, an upper low will move onshore and advance towards the
Central Plains midweek. At the surface, warm air advection will
ramp up as highs return to the 70s and 80s by Wednesday.
Dewpoints in the 60s will be brought northward across the region
in response to the incoming low, with a sharpening dryline taking
residence to our west and setting the stage for our next shot at
hazardous spring storms over late week. While a bit too early to
split the hairs of exact locations of storms and threats, current
parameter space shows deep layer shear and lapse rates sufficient
enough for strong to severe storms beginning Thursday. The GEFS
is much more "excited" for this potential with higher
probabilities of of greater SBCAPE and bulk shear on Thursday
compared to the GEPS and EPS, which brings in an additional layer
of uncertainty to the forecast.

Current guidance shows the dryline feature to remain to our west
through the weekend. Additional upper level disturbances
will transit across the Central Plains, promoting periodic
showers and storms through next weekend. Regarding severe
potential for late week and weekend, all three ensembles are
currently showing a signal for higher SBCAPE and bulk wind shear
during this time. However, it is well too early to cry wolf on
severe storms until more guidance is able to view next weekend.
Nonetheless, it is April in Texas and the potential for severe
storms will need to be held in the back of the mind regarding
preparations for late this week and weekend. Flooding may also
become a concern as PWATs near and in excess of 1.5" will be
present throughout late next week and weekend. All in all, make
sure to keep an eye on the forecast and any more significant
details as they become available.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through
the late evening across the region, but the back edge of the
precipitation will begin to spread through the D10 airspace here
in a few hours as activity pushes to the southeast. IFR cigs will
likely persist for much of the night after the precipitation has
ended, but conditions will begin to improve Sunday morning as
drier air begins to filter into North Texas. North winds 10-15 kt
are expected to persist into Sunday with VFR returning around
midday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  65  46  72  55 /  70   5   0   0   0
Waco                50  63  44  69  52 / 100   5   0   0   0
Paris               48  64  41  68  49 /  70   5   0   0   0
Denton              47  63  41  70  52 /  50   5   0   0   0
McKinney            49  64  43  70  53 /  70   5   0   0   0
Dallas              50  66  46  71  55 /  80   5   0   0   0
Terrell             48  64  42  69  51 /  90  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           50  65  45  71  53 / 100   5   0   0   0
Temple              49  63  44  70  52 / 100   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  64  42  72  52 /  40   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$