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000
FXUS65 KGGW 170820
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
220 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Colder weather continues today and lasts into the early
  weekend.

- Strong northwest winds will keep a Lake Wind Advisory in effect
  through Thursday evening.

- Snow showers mixed with rain at times are expected today which
  will be numerous north and isolated south. Most areas will have
  low QPF amounts and little or no snow accumulation. However,
  Opheim could see an inch of snow accumulation. Scattered snow
  showers will continue tonight and Thursday mainly north of the
  Missouri River.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level low will be over southern Saskatchewan today and move
slowly east to Manitoba by Friday. While most of the moisture
associated with this low remains north of the Canadian border, the
northern zones will be on the southern edge of the moisture at
times today through Friday. Unstable atmosphere today will allow
for varying amounts of snow showers mixed at times with rain
showers today which will be numerous north and isolated south. The
snow showers will continue at times mainly north of the Missouri
River tonight through Friday. While most areas have a less than 10
percent chance of an inch of snow between today and Thursday night,
Opheim has a 50 percent chance of one inch of snow in the same
time frame. This area will need to be watched today to see if the
combination of snow and blowing snow reduces visibility enough to
require a Winter Weather Advisory.

With strong winds continuing with the cold air advection. a Lake
Wind Advisory will remain in effect until Thursday evening for the
strong northwest winds. The strongest winds will be today and some
areas could have gusts exceeding 50 mph.

A ridge builds over the weekend bringing a warming trend. There is
some signal of an upper level Low riding down the ridge Sunday and
Sunday night and bringing a few showers to the region, but only
about half of the ensemble members are forecasting any measurable
precipitation at this time. There is good agreement in the models
and ensembles on warmer temperatures next week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence on high winds through Thursday. Medium to high confidence
north and low confidence south on POPs and amounts. Medium to
high confidence for upcoming ridge over the weekend, low
confidence on next system moving in Sunday night into Monday.
With the unstable atmosphere today and this evening, went higher
than NBM on pops for those periods.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: A mix of VFR and MVFR north, mainly VFR south
today and tonight.

DISCUSSION: Upper low over Saskatchewan today and tonight will
bring snow showers at times and strong NW winds. The snow showers
will be most frequent at KGGW and KOLF and least frequent at KGDV.
Low clouds will vary from low VFR to MVFR today and tonight.
WIND: NW 15 to 25 knots early increasing to 20 to 30 knots this
morning, gusts 30 to 45 knots. NW winds will be 15 to 25 knots
tonight.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow