Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280842
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above normal temperatures will continue through the
  weekend.

- Very High Grassland Fire Danger across East Colorado Thursday

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions are forecast for
  Sunday afternoon.

- Another round of precipitation is expected Sunday night
  through Monday night. Cooler temperatures will accompany this
  system before we warm back up through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Newest guidance has come in a bit drier for tomorrow across the
west with lower dew points. I also did raise temperatures a few
degrees as snowfall continues to melt and the fact that the area
did overachieve on high temperatures for today as well. This may
be a similar situation again tomorrow as the low level flow is
more southwesterly which would support warmer temperatures and
drier conditions. An interesting feature, which may again be in
play for tomorrow if lapse rates can remain steep across the
highest elevation is that the developing EML can be used to mix
down lower dewpoints as some inverted v soundings are seen.
This was the case today along the Palmer divide where dewpoints
in the low teens to even single digits which was observed at
Limon was seen; which was anomalous to surrounding sites along
the Front Range and towards the KS/CO line. If this were to be
the case then perhaps higher fire danger threat may be realized.
Currently messaging very high GFDI and near critical fire
weather conditions but if the above scenario can be achieved
then some locally critical conditions may be seen.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

True color satellite shows some cu have developed across eastern
Colorado - these will lead to a few isolated elevated showers
and possibly some rumbles of thunder this afternoon. A southwest
to northeast oriented boundary currently crossing into Wallace,
Greeley counties has some slight potential for a landspout or
two to develop in the next few hours. Primary focus if one were
to develop would be over south-southwest portions of the area,
with the showers currently moving east-southeast through the
county border area of Kiowa, Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, and Greeley
counties before 22/23Z. SPC mesoanalysis shows a sfc vort max
in this area, along with up to around 250 J/kg 0-3 MLCAPE.
Shower chances are forecast to taper off within a few hours
after sunset. Snow cover lingers, most evident east of Hwy 25.
Temperatures as of 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) range from mid 40s
northeast to mid 50s west.

Tonight`s temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 20s
southwest to near 30 to the east. With light winds and mostly clear
skies, there is some potential (less than 20%) for patchy fog to
develop across eastern portions of the area overnight into tomorrow
morning - south-southeast winds are anticipated to veer towards the
southwest, thus leading to some uncertainty as winds with a westerly
component are typically unfavorable for development. The upper level
ridge is forecast to move over the area tomorrow. 850mb temperatures
are forecast to range in the ~10-16C range, allowing highs to climb
into the mid to upper 60s. RH falls into the 15-20% range along/west
of KS Hwy 27, but winds expected to remain below the 25 mph
threshold for critical fire weather conditions. Overnight lows are
forecast to fall into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The long-term will start off under a broad ridge that will allow for
the warming trend to continue through the weekend. In the evening
hours Saturday, a shortwave will move over the far northern portions
of the CWA and could  bring some showers to locations along and
north of U.S. Highway 34 between 0 and 12Z. PoPs are about 15% for
these showers.

By Sunday, high temperatures will range from the upper 60s to
potentially low 80s. The trade off is that RH values will drop into
the mid teens. Combined with southerly winds sustained around 20 kts
and gusting to 30+ kts in the afternoon hours, critical fire weather
conditions will likely (55%) occur for a brief period of time.
Prolonged (3+ hours) critical fire weather conditions cannot be
ruled out, but confidence is much lower (25%). The locations that
are expected to see critical fire weather conditions are primarily
west of Kansas Highway 25 and south of Interstate 70. There is
little (<10%) confidence that blowing dust will be an issue based on
current guidance, the winds do not seem strong enough.

Overnight Saturday and Sunday, low temperatures will be in the 30s.
There is also a chance (25%) for fog to form in the
eastern/northeastern portions of the CWA, mainly Saturday night, but
will also be possible (15%) Sunday. Cross sections are supporting
this by showing moist easterly flow with a low-level inversion.

Sunday evening is when the "fun" really begins as an upper-level
deep trough begins to impact the area from the northwest. The GFS,
CMC-NH, and ECMWF are still showing very different things in the mid
and upper-levels, but the track of the 850 mb low pressure system is
being highlighted to move close to the NE/KS border to the east
before taking a more northeasterly path.

Here`s what we do know:

Precipitation is likely (65%) from this feature, especially in the
northwestern portion of the CWA. PoPs taper off farther to the south.

Near the end of the event, gusty northerly winds will usher in cold
air.

What we don`t know:

How much precipitation will fall and where the majority of it will
fall.

What the main P-Type will be. With the very warm temperatures on
Sunday and potentially strong southerly inflow, we could have a
surface layer remain above freezing and see mostly rain. However,
there are multiple ways that this thin melting layer may disappear
leading to snow or a wintry mix.

Timing of precipitation is a big question too. Precipitation could
start as early as 21Z Sunday or as late as 6-12Z Monday. Ending
times are even more of an unknown. Precipitation may cease as early
as 21Z Monday or as late as 9-12Z Tuesday.


High temperatures are currently forecast to reach the 50s Monday and
Tuesday, which adds some merit to the potential of a mostly rain
event. Overnight low temperatures are predicted to drop into the mid
20s Monday night.

After the trough and the precipitation clear the area some time
Tuesday, a well defined ridge from the southwest will build in over
the Tri-State area. This will lead us to another warming trend that
will last through the rest of the period. By Thursday, temperatures
look to rebound back into the 70s. Overnight lows will also follow
this trend with 30s and low 40s expected for Wednesday and Thursday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal. SSW winds
will be prevalent around 10 knots before increasing during the
afternoon to high sustained around 15-20 knots. High clouds are
forecast to be present but should remain around 120-150. LLWS
remains in place at KMCK through 14Z as a trough passes through
the region.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg


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