Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 241851
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1251 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some dangerous fire weather conditions possible Today.

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds and even an isolated tornado, may develop this
  afternoon into the early evening.

- Very strong north winds expected in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage late this afternoon and evening.

- Accumulating snow and blowing snow tonight into Monday
  morning.

- Dangerous travel conditions likely along the I-70 corridor in
  far northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado late today into
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Sun Mar 243 2024

Across the region this morning, after some showers over portions of
the area earlier this evening, mainly clear skies persist except
over locales along/east of Highway 83. With a low pressure system
and associated boundaries over portions of the CWA, temps/winds as
of 200 AM MDT are ranging widely. Currently 20s and 30s for portions
of the NW CWA while 40s are elsewhere. Those seeing higher
temperatures have a southerly flow with gusts in spots up to 20-25
mph at times. Colder areas are seeing a northerly flow.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor imagery
are showing a flattens ridge shifting eastward allowing for SW flow
aloft. This is ahead of a broad trough digging into the western
portion of the country.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on the
aforementioned surface low initially, then work in tandem with
850/700 mb support later tonight into Monday. A wide range of wx
will impact the area from severe wx initially, to high winds and
extreme wintry wx tonight into Monday.

Based on current short term guidance/CAMs, the low currently over
eastern Colorado will shift east into western Kansas later today.
Gradient expected to increase as the day progresses, creating gusts
up to 30-40 mph. Areas ahead of the low and accompanying front will
see some potential elevated fire wx, mainly south of I-70. Guidance
has improved RH values over the past couple days, so do not expect
criteria to be reached to warrant red flag conditions, but should be
monitored nonetheless, as there is and Elevated Risk Fire Outlook
from the SPC.

By the afternoon hours southerly flow/increased moisture will pick
up for east/central locales, creating instability as convection
starts to form. Increased cloud cover could hamper conditions some,
but SPC has increased the Slight Risk area for severe wx a bit
further westward closer to the Colorado border. MUCape values east
jump to 400-900 j/kg by the afternoon, DCape around 200-300 j/kg.
SPC enhanced stretching potential peaks in the afternoon along a
front extending through the CWA. Large hail parameter is high as
well. SPC does have the CWA with the potential for large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornado potential as a result. The
timeframe for this will be from the mid afternoon hours into the
early evening.

As the low shifts east through the day, winds on the backside will
become northerly and increase sharply due to high pressure rises.
guidance still showing the potential for gusts to approach
55-65 mph overnight into Monday. A 700/850mb low will traverse
the northern CWA this evening/overnight. Strongest
frontogenesis, especially at the 850 level will help to enhance
snowfall as it changes over from rain from the afternoon/early
evening from west to east. Based on the positioning of the
700/850 lows, the best chances for accumulating snows have
increased by several inches north of the Interstate. With the
increased snowfall potential and steady guidance showing high
winds, have issued a Blizzard Warning for most zones along/north
of I-70. There is a Winter Wx Advisory elsewhere, but may need
to be upgraded later depending of the track of the surface low.
Basically starting around 06z Monday. Amounts ranging from 3-7
inches north, to 1-3 inches south. The changeover will be slow
as some trw/rw will persist east, but all areas cold enough by
12z Monday.

Monday, winds will persist through much of the morning hours and
taper through the afternoon from west to east. Looking for precip to
taper off in tandem. These winds will keep the potential for blowing
snow over the area through the day. High pressure nosing south
behind the exiting low will reinforce the CAA over the area giving
the CWA a below normal day for temps, with a slight increase Tuesday
as it begins to shift east. Continued clearing and dry for Tuesday
as high pressure becomes dominant features going into midweek.

For temps, looking for a wide range for daytime highs today and will
be dependent on the speed of the front coming through, and cloud
cover ahead of it. Looking for a range today in upper 50s to around
70F. Going into Monday, colder with a range in the lower to mid 30s,
and for Tuesday, upper 30s to upper 40s.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the mid teens west through the
mid 20s east. Monday night, colder with single numbers to lower
teens above zero west into the mid teens east. And for Tuesday
night, upper teens to mid 20s expected. Wind chill readings for the
overnight periods will range in the single numbers above/below zero
tonight, the single numbers below zero Monday night and mainly lower
to mid teens above zero for Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

West-northwest flow aloft is present at the start of the long term
period with the upper low center now situated over IA/MO within a
broad trough across much of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure
noses in and we`ll continue with well below normal temperatures
Tuesday, before gradually warming up mid-week. Weak embedded waves
may cause a rogue shower or two to develop Tuesday evening-Wednesday
(<15% chance), but if they do, they`d be minimally (if at all)
impactful. At least some cloud cover will return in this timeframe
before the upstream upper level ridge works its way eastward during
the latter half of the work week. This will promote a warming/drying
trend, once again increasing fire weather concerns, particularly for
Thursday-Friday. Towards the end of the period, model guidance
depicts an upper level low digging south along the west coast, which
will likely become the next system to watch, bringing about a return
of active weather next weekend into the following week. Temperatures
during the long term period continue below normal through Wednesday
before warming to above normal Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

For KGLD, with a low pressure system traversing the area during
the forecast period, there will be a mix of wx conditions to
impact the terminal. Through about 22z Today, VFR. From 22z
onward, chances for thunderstorms through about 05z Monday,
then colder air transitions to snow. Mainly a mix of MVFR/VFR
conditions, but decreases after 08z as snow/blowing snow lowers
visibility to less than 1 mile. Winds, south around 20-30kts
through about 00z Monday then shifting easterly, and northerly
by 03z around 35-50kts.

for kmck, similar to what will occur in kgld, with a few hours
different in timing due to the track of the low. KMCK will stay
in warmer air longer with MVFR/IFR rain/ceilings. Tthunder is
not out of the question later today. From 08z Monday onward,
snow/blowing snow lowers visibility to less than 1 mile.
Ceilings MVFR. Winds, southeast 15-30kts through 04z Monday,
then northerly 30-50kts. LLWS 12z-15z today 190@40kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ001>003-013-
     014.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ027-041-042.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ004-015-016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Monday
     night for COZ090-091.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Monday
     for COZ092.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Monday to midnight MDT
     Monday night for COZ092.
NE...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.