Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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734 FXUS63 KGLD 130825 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 225 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday/Wednesday night. - Much lower chances (20%-30%) for precipitation Friday and Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 This afternoon and evening will have more widespread precipitation, stronger storms, as a low pressure system is moving over the CWA. Since last night, the 850 mb LLJ has been moving more moisture into the region and now that the surface low is in the CWA, wrap-around precipitation is occurring and will continue into the night. CAPE still seems moderate with 1,000-1,500 J/kg and little CIN to hold it back. Shear is fairly weak, with 0-6km shear less than 25 kts across nearly all of the CWA. 0-3 CAPE is one of the most impressive parameters for the afternoon with soundings showing 50-150 J/kg ahead of the first wave of precipitation. This setup makes landspouts possible in the early stages of the event. Model guidance is having a difficult time resolving exact placement for any boundaries early this afternoon, but the area most likely for a boundary to set-up will in a north/south orientation and within about 50 miles of the CO/KS border throughout our CWA. This boundary would serve as a focal point for any landspout formation. As the storms mature and the event progress (around 21-3Z time frame), hail will become more of a threat. As the low moves to the eastern side of the CWA, shear will slightly increase (5-15 kts) and more moisture will wrap into the CWA, giving us a higher threat for severe hail. With the weaker shear and warm, moist lower levels, heavy rain could become an issue, causing some concern for flooding potential, mainly southeastern CWA. However, due to little rainfall over the previous week and the types of storm formation expected, there is about 15% confidence flooding would occur. More information can be found in the Hydro section below. The storms will look to grow to the south as the entire system moves to the east. CAMs are showing 2-3 bands of rain forming in the northwestern CWA before moving across the CWA. The western storms will be moving quicker than the storms over the eastern CWA. By 6Z, majority of the storms should have moved out of the area, but lingering showers through 12-18Z Monday is possible in the far eastern CWA. As the storms begin clearing out, northwesterly winds will pick up, gusts up around 20-25 kts by tomorrow afternoon are expected. Also, as the storms move out overnight, the skies will begin to clear up again from west to east. This will let low temperatures in the west cool into the lower 40s while locations in the east will stay in the 50s tonight. Tomorrow looks to be mostly clear, and despite northerly winds, high temperatures look to warm into the mid 70s. The mostly clear skies will continue overnight tomorrow and temperatures across the entire Tri-State area will cool into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Relatively quiet pattern on tap for mid May. While there will be occasional low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms, severe storms are not anticipated due to lack of any strong forcing. One system will track across the southern plains Thursday and Friday, while another one slowly develops in the Great Basin over the weekend. The local area will see shortwave ridging to begin the period which then transitions to southwest flow ahead of the western system over the weekend. Precipitation chances will mainly be tied to weak waves in the southwest flow and daytime heating toward the latter parts of the long term period. Temperatures will be near normal to start the period, but warm to above normal over the weekend. The warmest day will be Saturday with mid to upper 80s currently forecast. Do not expect any frost or freeze problems during this period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1005 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 A period of sub-VFR ceilings is possible at the MCK terminal overnight into Monday morning, otherwise.. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Winds will remain light and variable overnight.. becoming northerly at 10-15 knots Monday morning and persisting into the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable during the late afternoon and early evening.. near the end of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...BV