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000
FXUS64 KHGX 120435
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Strong/gusty offshore winds this afternoon will be decreasing through
the evening hours as surface high pressure builds down into the area.
These light winds along with the clear skies and dry air will help to
give us a cool night tonight. Lows are expected to range from the up-
per 40s across the Piney Woods...lower 50s from the Brazos Valley and
areas outside of H-town proper...mid 50s for H-town proper and in the
lower 60s at the immediate coast.

Another mild and quiet day is expected tomorrow with the surface high
just east of the region. This is going to allow for the return of on-
shore winds and the gradual increase of low-level moisture and warmer
temperatures heading into the weekend. But, there is also going to be
some increasing mid/high clouds from the west tomorrow throughout the
day. This could help to keep highs in the lower 80s over most locales
tomorrow afternoon...with a few spots in the mid 80s. Lows will be in
the 50s inland and into the 60s along the coast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Pleasant weather should continue into the weekend as ridging remains
in place aloft. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS keeps
onshore flow in place, which should funnel Gulf moisture into SE
Texas while increasing temperatures over the next several days. Highs
on Saturday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with Sunday morning
lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Early next week, an upper level trough should begin to fill in over
the Four Corners/Plains. PWs are progged to reach 1.2-1.6" around
this time. Weak impulses and a 30-40 knot LLJ passing overhead will
provide some support for storm development, however, robust capping
around 925-900mb should largely suppress rain chances early in the
week. A cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level
system is expected to push across Texas Monday night, however, long
range guidance indicates that this front will slow/stall over
portions of the Brazos Valley during the early morning hours of
Tuesday. While this could still bring isolated showers/storms across
the northern fringes of our CWA, it`ll keep most of SE Texas dry
during this period. Long range models show PWs pooling to 1.5-1.9"
ahead of this boundary. Rising instability/shear with the
approaching trough could amplify the strength of any storms that do
develop, though robust capping still looks to greatly suppress storm
development ahead of the the frontal boundary. Nonetheless, the
warming trend should continue as Tuesday`s highs reach the 80s and
Wednesday morning`s lows bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
Highs for Wednesday afternoon could approach the 90 degree mark.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

SKC, light/VRB winds overnight. Winds become southeasterly in the
morning, staying around or below 10 knots through end of forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Calmer winds and seas can be expected through the end of the work
week. Water levels may drop to around 0.5ft below MLLW overnight into
early Friday morning. Onshore flow returns during the day on Friday,
strengthening over the weekend and potentially warranting caution
flags at times. Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Monday as
winds approach 15 to 25 knots and seas reach 5 to 7 feet.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  52  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  54  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  64  73  66  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03